Majority of broad stock markets up in November due to stimulus talk but oil-dominant indices suffer

1st December 2014

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Thirty two out of 48 markets on S&P’s Broad Market Index (BMI) gained in November as markets reacted with approval to the prospects of stimulus from the ECB while China cut rates.

Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst, S&P Dow Jones Indices says that developed markets gained 1.56% with Germany (6.32%), Ireland (5.95%) and the Netherlands (5.49%) leading the way, whilst Norway (-9.05%), Australia (-6.94%) and Portugal (-3.17%) came bottom.

The US is now over half of the entire BMI equity market for the first time. Emerging markets declined by -0.77%. Performance was led by Turkey (6.70%), India (2.19%) and Peru (2.16%); Columbia (-11.57%), Russia (-10.61%) and Malaysia (-5.18%) were the biggest losers.

Markets mostly improved for the month, as the word of the month became “stimulus,” says Silverblatt.

Japan delayed a planned sales tax increase (scheduled for October 2015), with the Prime Minister calling for early elections (to gain support for new plans), as Japan reported an unexpected 1.6% decline in its third quarter GDP, placing that country back into another official recession.

The OPEC members met in Vienna and agreed to keep their production unchanged, pushing oil down to a four-year low, and pushing energy related issues down with it.

The outperformance of the U.S. markets has increased its size relative to the other 47 BMI markets, with the U.S. now accounting for 50.40% of the entire BMI equity market; the first such level since the 1989 inception of the index. In the U.S., however, it was all up for the equity markets, as prices continued to set new records.  U.S. optimism was running high, even as U.S. stimulus ended, with its economy seen as more stable and offering slower, but steadier growth.

Developed markets continued to gain

Developed markets continued to do better, posting a broad 1.33%% gain for the month, as 19 of the 25 markets gained.  The U.S. added 2.21%, with the developed markets up 0.75% excluding the U.S.

Germany did the best, rebounding 6.32%, but remains 7.77% off year-to-date.  Norway did the worst, off 9.05%, followed by Australia, which declined 6.94%, and is now off 5.85% year-to-date.

Emerging markets were mixed

Emerging markets varied greatly in November as the 0.77% consolidated decline actually had 13 of the 23 markets up.  Lower oil prices pushed currencies and markets down for markets dominated by oil, as Russia fell 10.61% and is now off 32.98% year-to-date.

Columbia did the worst, off 11.57%.  Turkey did the best, adding 6.70%, and is now up 21.61% year-to-date. Emerging markets are up 2.99% year-to-date, reflecting a difficult year, as 13 of the 23 markets remain profitable.

S&P Global Broad Market Index (BMI) Global
(All data as at 30 November 2014)
BMI MEMBER

1-MONTH

YTD

3-MONTH

6-MONTH

1-YEAR

2-YEAR

3-YEAR

Global

1.33%

3.81%

-1.76%

0.69%

5.53%

28.75%

42.80%

Global Ex-U.S.

0.44%

-2.33%

-5.76%

-4.91%

-1.41%

14.62%

24.61%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Emerging

-0.77%

2.99%

-6.22%

0.18%

2.00%

3.64%

12.33%

Turkey

6.70%

21.61%

3.56%

2.24%

2.68%

-3.90%

31.32%

India

2.19%

36.99%

5.40%

13.15%

42.49%

29.07%

47.82%

Peru

2.16%

2.73%

-5.70%

-3.06%

8.01%

-22.08%

-13.97%

Czech Republic

2.06%

-3.45%

-6.01%

-7.30%

-6.99%

-14.16%

-21.81%

Egypt

1.68%

32.02%

-1.55%

13.42%

43.22%

61.21%

88.14%

Greece

1.39%

-28.53%

-26.38%

-30.22%

-27.25%

14.19%

22.97%

China

1.32%

3.97%

-0.52%

9.44%

1.95%

17.58%

32.02%

Philippines

1.27%

22.15%

1.24%

6.27%

14.78%

15.50%

67.44%

U.A.E.

1.19%

22.18%

-6.83%

-13.16%

41.29%

124.21%

170.20%

South Africa

0.77%

8.01%

-2.92%

2.20%

8.32%

9.45%

13.71%

Taiwan

0.56%

3.69%

-6.40%

-2.04%

5.57%

15.87%

33.16%

Indonesia

0.42%

21.68%

-3.76%

0.60%

19.88%

-6.95%

-1.63%

Hungary

0.26%

-20.77%

-4.52%

-19.89%

-20.67%

-22.57%

-15.74%

Thailand

-0.20%

23.05%

-0.78%

12.67%

13.91%

12.94%

53.34%

Qatar

-0.61%

30.31%

-0.89%

-3.52%

29.99%

60.55%

61.40%

Poland

-0.79%

-8.28%

-3.54%

-9.86%

-12.14%

2.52%

16.79%

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