Reading List: The failure to forecast the Great Recession

28th November 2011

The Failure to Forecast the Great Recession – Simon Potter

Simon Potter examines the performance of the forecasts produced by the economic research staff of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York over the period 2007-10 and considers some of the reasons why, like most private sector forecasters, they failed to predict the Great Recession. Liberty Street Economics


The Politics of Economics in the Age of Shouting

Economists don't live in caves, so there is no reason they should be immune to the centrifugal politics of this noisy world. "Thus serious scholars are tempted to sign onto ideas that stretch their own credulity, and lesser economists are thrust forward for their moment of fame as witnesses on behalf of dubious claims." New York Times


Home truths

Eamonn Butler tells the UK government to "read its Milton Freidman." This is in response to the government introducing a new scheme to underwrite 95% of mortgages. According to Butler, rather than preventing prices from falling, it will add further to price increases. Adam Smith


Jobs for Justice

"Inequality almost everywhere, including China, has become so extreme that it must be reduced. In the not-so-rich countries of the global south, much inequality is the consequence of an old problem: lack of employment opportunities for the poor." Project-Syndicate


Chart of the Day: The Future of the Euro

A decision tree on what the future of the euro would look like based on different policy responses. Credit Writedowns


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