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Notayesmanseconomics
Shaun Richards is a independent economist who studied originally at the LSE. His speciality is monetary economics and he uses it to analyse current economic trends. He started his career in the City of London in 1985 and brings his trading experience in bond, currency and derivative markets to his analysis of current economic events. Follow him on twitter @notayesmansecon.
Portugal’s record unemployment rate tells us that she is in an economic depression and should leave the Euro
After discussing Spain yesterday today I wish to analyse the situation in her neighbour in the Iberian peninsular Portugal. If there is a country which is observing the events transpiring in Greece right now with the most trepidation it must … Read More
Spain’s latest economic data shows us that her leaders were “Too Blind To See It”
One of the ironies of the crisis which has engulfed the Euro is that summits which are presented as solutions to the crisis in fact have become triggers for it getting worse! Unfortunately Europe’s leaders have not figured out this … Read More
Jonathan Portes (NIESR) and I agree the UK can borrow cheaply but we need to account for all of the costs
One of the features of the credit crunch era has been the rise in price of what are considered to be “safe haven” assets. We have seen this in currency markets for example with the rise of the Swiss Franc … Read More
Ken Eisold
Ken Eisold is an internationally respected authority on the psychodynamics of organisations and works with CEOs and top teams in the private and public sectors in the US. He is the author of the award winning book, "What you don't know you know" which was awarded the Gold Medal in the 2010 IPB Awards in the US.
Can risk be managed?
What Does It Take? JP Morgan’s recent loss of two billion dollars embarrassed a bank that has been vigorously claiming that rules to restrict trading are not needed. But it also casts doubt on a settled conviction in the financial … Read More
Citigroup: Shareholders act up
A New Way to Unite! One slight gesture towards economic reform in the U.S. has been the provision that shareholders can vote on executive pay, and, last week, Citigroup shareholders rejected its CEO, Vikram Pandit’s 14.9 million package. That’s news! … Read More
Divided by a common problem: The economy
Opposite Strategies in Europe and America Two radically different solutions to a common problem are being proposed in Europe and America – or so it seems. All our economies are in trouble: massive indebtedness and credit shortages, on the one … Read More
Peter J.R. Morgan
Peter is a freelance macroeconomist who develops new economic tools and financial products. He has a degree in accounting and finance and has subsequently worked in banking and insolvency. His work has been reviewed and recognised at a high level, which has led to meetings with senior economists and politicians. Including the Rt Hon Vince Cable, who requested a meeting with Peter to discuss an alternative inflationary control mechanism he devised. Website: Morganisteconomics
The Eurozone is a polarised economic model
The Eurozone is not a uniformly successful economic model. For one group of member states to succeed another group will fail. This is as a result of the Euro providing a single currency value across the whole of the Eurozone, … Read More
Tax Greedy?
I often wonder why so much money is taken in tax. The excuses range from the need to pay for services provided by the government to subsidising the poor. However I am not so sure it is anymore. In at … Read More
Inflationary Trap – A Regressive Inflationary Cycle
In recent years the level of debt finance within the majority of business entities has increased significantly. This is often put down to having a consistently low rate of interest allowing low borrowing costs and encouraging a more highly geared … Read More
Simon Ward
Simon Ward is Henderson's chief economist. He has worked as an economist in financial markets for over 20 years and believes that changes in monetary conditions are a key driver of both the economic cycle and movements in financial markets; accordingly, a forecasting approach emphasising monetary analysis has a better chance of success.
Dovish UK IR suggests QE hold was tactical
The May Inflation Report suggests that more QE is in the offing but the Bank of England is reserving its ammunition until the fall-out from the Eurozone crisis becomes clearer. The Bank, however, continues to deny any responsibility for improving … Read More
Greek bank depositors, not voters, key to EMU future
Press reports of faster deposit outflows from Greek banks accord with developments on the ECB’s balance sheet last week. “Other claims on euro area credit institutions denominated in euro” – a category that includes the Greek and Irish emergency liquidity … Read More
Sluggish UK trade performance cautionary for Greek devaluationists
Officialdom and the consensus cheered sterling’s 2007-08 collapse on the grounds that it would speed economic recovery. Posts at the time suggested that capacity and credit constraints would prevent a major expansion of tradeables output, implying a bigger boost to … Read More
Nick Kirrage
Nick Kirrage has managed the Schroders Recovery Fund alongside Kevin Murphy since 2006. He also specialises in the transport and metals & mining sectors as a UK equity research analyst.
The core of the problem
The market tends to take what it wants to from corporate results and nowhere is that more evident now than in the banking sector. Barclays and Lloyds have each recently published first-quarter numbers and, while investors generally treated both with … Read More
Every cloud
A day can be a long time when it is raining solidly but the flood threats and general misery resulting from the wettest April since records began in 1910, have done much to obscure a broader fact. We have just … Read More
AstraZeneca and GlaxoSmithKline – Missed bargains
AstraZeneca and GlaxoSmithKline, the two giants of the UK pharmaceutical sector, recently announced details of a proposed billion-dollar deal each. Astra is looking to pay $1.2bn (£740m) for Ardea, which has a promising gout drug in Phase 3 trials. That … Read More
Kevin Murphy
Kevin began working on private banking portfolios within the UK Equity fund management team, before becoming a sector analyst, specialising in construction & business materials. He has been a fund manager within the Schroders Specialist Value UK Equity team and co-manager of the Schroder Recovery Fund since 2006.
AstraZeneca and GlaxoSmithKline: A chorus of mis-approval
One of the more striking aspects about the potential billion-dollar acquisitions recently announced by UK drugs giants AstraZeneca and GlaxoSmithKline, which we discuss in more detail in A bargain missed, was the universally positive welcome they received from analysts and … Read More
Default lines
We are now five years on from the start of the financial crisis and, as such, can reasonably begin to form a judgement on the performance of companies and, in particular, on corporate default rates across the downturn. It may … Read More
The non-negotiables
According to Howard Marks, the chairman of US fund manager Oaktree Capital Management, there are three “non-negotiable” requirements for accurately assessing investment performance – a record spanning a number of years; the inclusion of good and bad years to see … Read More
Ketan Patel
Ketan Patel joined Ecclesiastical Investment Management Ltd in October 2003. He began his career on the equity derivatives trading desk at JP Morgan, before moving to Clerical Medical Investment Management as an equity research analyst covering the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors. He has degrees in History, Geography and Economics from the University of London, Ketan was awarded the CFA charter in September 2009
Luxury and Sustainability – Style over Substance?
The exponential growth in the luxury sector, fostered by strong demand from China, raises compelling issues for the responsible investor; is luxury by definition sustainable, and moreover in times of austerity and recession, can it be considered as part of … Read More
China’s Love of Luxury
The global economy is in the midst of a malaise not seen since the 1930s. The combination of a banking and sovereign debt crisis has left companies and countries on the precipice of bankruptcy. However, one sector has gone from … Read More
2011: Year of record dividend payout in the UK
Investors, who have endured a torrid time in recent volatile markets, finally had something to cheer about. Shareholder payouts by companies in the UK hit a record £68bn in 2011, up 19.4%, the first year-on-year increase since the banking crisis … Read More
Neville White
Neville White joined Ecclesiastical Investment Management Ltd as Senior SRI Analyst in March 2010, from CCLA Investment Management Ltd where he was head of ethical research and corporate governance. Prior to that he was Secretary to the Church of England’s Ethical Investment Advisory Group with primary responsibility for policy development and ethical research for the Church’s three national investment bodies. Neville has worked in SRI for 15 years. He has a BA (Hons) degree in English & American Studies.
It’s the contract, stupid
A little explored area of corporate governance is the much lauded executive service contract. To many casual observers, an executive contract is one that appears to contain just a single line ‘winner takes all’. As we grow into the ‘shareholder … Read More
Mirror, Mirror on the Wall, how come executives won’t heed the call?
Back in early March, I wrote wistfully that shareholders were waiting for a meaningful gesture from the Trinity Mirror Remuneration Committee in response to the glaring disconnect between levels of pay at the company, and the destruction in shareholder value … Read More
From Rio to the Rodeo: Time for the corporate sector to rein in the ‘business as usual’ approach
Rio+20 offers us a unique opportunity for re-examining the private sector’s role in combating climate change. Twenty years ago, the Rio summit (UNCED) offered the corporate sector an opportunity to become involved in an area historically only open to environmental … Read More
QFINANCE
QFINANCE is a unique collaboration of more than 300 of the world’s leading practitioners and visionaries in finance and financial management, we cover key aspects of finance including risk and cash-flow management, operations, macro issues, regulation, auditing, and raising capital. QFINANCE.
UK’s shareholder spring risks becoming a winter of discontent
The “shareholder spring”, which has seen UK institutional investors rise up against corporate greed and ‘rewards for failure’, and which is named after last year’s populist uprisings across the Middle East, has got off to a remarkable start . Recent … Read More
Commercial real estate heading for a deep freeze- Part 1 of 3
One of the clichés of real estate investing is that you can make more of everything but you can’t make more land. The implication is that real estate has to be a one way bet. More people competing for a … Read More
A missed opportunity for Sir Mervyn King
I was taken back by the vitriol that was leveled at Sir Mervyn King after his Today lecture last week (amusingly summed up in an earlier post by Shaun Richards of Mindful Money). The Bank of England governor, due to step down in … Read More
Darius McDermott
Darius McDermott is Managing Director of Chelsea Financial Services and Chairman of the Association of Independent Discount Brokers. Chelsea was founded in 1983 and was the first intermediary to discount initial charges on unit trusts and bonds, and later PEPs and ISAs. Darius has 17 years industry experience and his specialities are fund research and investor behaviour, as well as being able to make sense of financial markets for the man on the street. Follow him on Twitter @DariusMcDermott .
Europe: Where next for investors?
9th May 2012 marks two years since 27 member states of the EU agreed the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) in order to provide financial assistance to eurozone states in economic difficulty and basically restore financial stability across the continent. … Read More
Austerity vs Growth – the tension grows
My first blog back in February asked if markets or voters would have the upper hand this year. I commented that unhappy populations, angry at continued austerity measures, would vote for policies that would put money back in their pockets. … Read More
USA: the land of income opportunity?
The US is known as the land of opportunity. It is famous for its entrepreneurial spirit, for companies which start off in someone’s backyard and grow to dominate worldwide. More recently though, investors have started to talk about the US … Read More
Andy Parsons
Andy Parsons is Head of Investment Research & Advisory Services and Fund Manager at The Share Centre . He joined in 2006 as a fully-qualified financial adviser via the CII and has over 23 years experience. He manages and develops the services offered by The Share Centre’s Advice team. Part of his role is to establish and maintain close working relationships with external financial services providers such as fund managers. Andy takes a broad view of financial planning and is a regular contributor of general financial advice and articles to the media.
Emerging markets – the next frontier
Andy Parsons looks at the next level of emerging market countries to present investment opportunities. “Over the past decade BRIC countries have been the main focus for investors seeking exposure to emerging markets, the story and opportunities they offer the … Read More
Investing in infrastructure
Andy Parsons, head of investment research at The Share Centre, explains what investing in infrastructure has to offer investors. “Infrastructure investment as a theme still remains relatively new to the market of Unit Trusts and Open Ended Investment Companies and … Read More
John Kingham
John Kingham is author of the popular blog UK Value Investor. His aim is to help investors learn how to automate and improve their investment process by filtering out the short term noise and media hype; building a risk-appropriate portfolio of value stocks using repeatable, systematic and yet relatively simple strategies.UK Value Investor
3 tips for your investment strategy
I came across a new book the other day called Repeatability, by Chris Zook and James Allen of Bain & Company. Although the book is about building enduring businesses that can cope with constant change, what struck me was how … Read More
Marks and Spencer – Does it make sense to invest in retail?
M&S is a mainstay for many investors’, both professional and private alike, but is it still a good investment given the current difficulties in the retail sector? In some ways that’s a trick question. The difficult environment faced by retailers … Read More
Was Buffett wrong to buy Tesco?
When Warren Buffett snapped up over 5% of Tesco earlier this year, many investors thought he’d made a big mistake. Three months later the share price has gone nowhere, so who was right and who was wrong? Of course, it’s … Read More
The Psy-Fi Blog
Tim Richards is a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets. He is author of the widely read The Psy-Fi Blog, which presents the world of finance through the lens of psychology, replacing personal opinion with academic research and worthless assertion with logical argument. All while never losing a chance to raise a laugh at the madness of the markets.
Facebook friends can make you poor
Talk, Talk, Talk Economists have had an extraordinary new idea. They’ve noticed that people communicate with one another and this has opened up a new line of analysis. Maybe these social interactions are somehow important in investment decisions? Alright, enough … Read More
Crowdfunding Heroic Entrepreneurs
Ask Not The crowdfunding provisions in the JOBS Act have provided a rich source of material for commentators both for and against the concept. Providing bright eyed innovators with seed capital seems like a good idea, but pushing small investors … Read More
The tyranny of numercy
Count the Errors It seems that numeracy is the next big idea because important people, whoever they are, have suddenly woken up to the fact that having a workforce that needs to understand linear regression, but which actually can’t count the number … Read More
Ruairidh Roberts
Ruairidh joined Google during 2011 as Industry Manager in the Finance team. His responsibilities lie in developing senior level relationships with investment firms with a variety of product offerings; understanding the investment landscape and consulting on digital adoption in marketing driving efficiency in acquisitions for his clients. Prior to Google, Ruairidh worked for ten years at the New York Times and International Herald Tribune.
