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Notayesmanseconomics
Shaun Richards is an independent economist who studied originally at the LSE. His speciality is monetary economics and he uses it to analyse current economic trends. He started his career in the City of London in 1985 and brings his trading experience in bond, currency and derivative markets to his analysis of current economic events. Follow him on twitter @notayesmansecon.
What are the thoughts of the next Bank of England Governor Mark Carney?
Yesterday the incoming Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney gave a speech on Canada entitled “Canada Works” but in it we did receive some clues as to his thinking about wider issues. One theme we can easily spot … Read More
Why didn’t the UK’s economic contraction and then stagnation lead to falling prices?
Today sees the publication of the UK inflation figures for April which are likely to show for the first time in a while a fall in the rate of annual inflation. However whilst this dip is welcome it will remain over … Read More
How is the Abenomics economic experiment going in Japan?
This morning has already seen plenty of action in the markets of the Far East with the price of Silver falling by 7% at one point before recovering to around 4% down at US $21.40 as I type this. However … Read More
Ken Eisold
Ken Eisold is an internationally respected authority on the psychodynamics of organisations and works with CEOs and top teams in the private and public sectors in the US. He is the author of the award winning book, "What you don't know you know" which was awarded the Gold Medal in the 2010 IPB Awards in the US.
Ken Eisold will continue to blog at www.keneisold.com
Ken Eisold will continue to blog at www.keneisold.com and Psychology Today.
The mystery of consumer confidence
It’s not what economists think Confidence in the U.S. economy is up, but economic performance is down. New figures show over-all growth stalled at 1.3 % annually, while unemployment hovers between 8.1 and 8.3%. That’s disappointing to economists as well … Read More
Good robots, bad robots, and us
Loving them and fearing them Robots are getting better and better, and easier and easier to manage. Recently Tom Friedman described robots that are easy to use and flexible, that help workers instead of replacing them. “Our robot is low-cost, … Read More
Peter J.R. Morgan
Peter Morgan is a freelance macroeconomist who develops new economic tools and financial products. He has a degree in accounting and finance and has subsequently worked in banking and insolvency. His work has been reviewed and recognised at a high level, which has led to meetings with senior economists and politicians. Including the Rt Hon Vince Cable, who requested a meeting with Peter to discuss an alternative inflationary control mechanism he devised.
Peter Morgan’s economic coverage will continue at morganisteconomics.blogspot.co.uk
Peter Morgan’s economic coverage will continue at morganisteconomics.blogspot.co.uk.
Does America Need to Consider a Creditor’s Agreement to Stop the National Debt Growing Further?
In recent years America’s national debt has increased significantly due to the impact the global financial crisis has had on the economy, forcing government expenditure to increase. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities the total national public … Read More
Does Britain need a Star Chamber?
A ‘Star Chamber’ or ‘Camera Stellata’, as it is known in Latin, is a secret closed court which is used to prosecute people of prominent status who have abused their power. Star Chambers have been used in the past to … Read More
Simon Ward
Simon Ward is Henderson's chief economist. He has worked as an economist in financial markets for over 20 years and believes that changes in monetary conditions are a key driver of both the economic cycle and movements in financial markets; accordingly, a forecasting approach emphasising monetary analysis has a better chance of success.
UK temporary inflation fall boosts second-half economic prospects
CPI inflation was expected to fall in April because of lower petrol prices and a favourable Budget base effect but the outturn of 2.4% was below a projection here of 2.6% (also the consensus forecast). The chart shows a revised … Read More
Why UK 2013 growth of 2% remains achievable
A post in December suggested that UK GDP would grow by about 2% in 2013. This was based partly on a simple forecasting rule-of-thumb that judges prospects for the coming calendar year to be “good” if both real money growth … Read More
Equities at risk from weaker hedge fund demand
Yesterday’s post cited improved investor sentiment as a reason for near-term caution on prospects for equities and other risk assets. A change in positioning as sentiment has shifted from excessive pessimism in late summer 2012 to moderate optimism now has … Read More
Ketan Patel
Ketan Patel joined Ecclesiastical Investment Management Ltd in October 2003. He began his career on the equity derivatives trading desk at JP Morgan, before moving to Clerical Medical Investment Management as an equity research analyst covering the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors. He has degrees in History, Geography and Economics from the University of London, Ketan was awarded the CFA charter in September 2009
Investing in Pharma – Europe vs the US
The pharmaceutical sector has endured a torrid decade across several fronts – patent expirations, anaemic pipelines, pricing and political pressure. The sector enjoyed great success in the last two decades of the twentieth century, when burgeoning pipelines were bringing blockbuster … Read More
Singapore – The business capital of the world?
In the scramble to invest in emerging markets, especially in Asia where China and India dominate the investment landscape, markets such as Singapore often get overlooked. The city state is developing itself into a hub in Asia, located between the … Read More
ESG – Absent in Asia?
When reviewing the development of socially responsible investment globally, the lack of input from emerging markets, especially Asia, is a prominent feature. Following a recent trip to Asia, where I met a diverse range of companies, it became very apparent … Read More
Neville White
Neville White joined Ecclesiastical Investment Management Ltd as Senior SRI Analyst in March 2010, from CCLA Investment Management Ltd where he was head of ethical research and corporate governance. Prior to that he was Secretary to the Church of England’s Ethical Investment Advisory Group with primary responsibility for policy development and ethical research for the Church’s three national investment bodies. Neville has worked in SRI for 15 years. He has a BA (Hons) degree in English & American Studies.
The case against growth at any price
The pursuit of growth is the prevailing mood music of our time. Whilst the political parties are divided on how best to achieve this, they are at least united in their dogged conviction that our sluggish economy can only pick … Read More
Glenstrata: Through a Glass Darkly
For those of us toiling in the vineyard of responsible investment there are always ‘problem’ companies. The on-off merger of Glencore and Xstrata provides ample opportunity, not surprisingly, to examine at close hand a £56bn mega-deal that raises many questions … Read More
Room on Top! The Curious Case of the Ill-defined Chairman
The puffs of muted outrage were predictably swift. Hot on the heels of their losing the joint venture West Coast rail franchise to FirstGroup, a board room re-shuffle at Stagecoach had corporate governance watchers eyebrows twitching. For the second time, … Read More
QFINANCE
QFINANCE is a unique collaboration of more than 300 of the world’s leading practitioners and visionaries in finance and financial management, we cover key aspects of finance including risk and cash-flow management, operations, macro issues, regulation, auditing, and raising capital. QFINANCE.
The botched Facebook IPO and the dilemma of stock options and falling prices- Part One
Two heavyweight journals recently delivered a thumbs down verdict on Mark Zuckerberg’s handling of the Facebook IPO. Forbes tackled the matter head on with an article by one of the journal’s staff writers Nathan Vardi, unambiguously entitled: “The Man Responsible … Read More
India’s latest FDI measures run into trouble- Part 2
In December 2011 the Indian government did away with the 51% cap on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into single-brand retail chains. From that moment foreign based specialist chains such as IKEA had the right to launch in India, provided they … Read More
India’s latest FDI measures run into trouble- Part 1
It is no secret that India’s retail sector is hugely fragmented, to a degree that would be unthinkable in the UK, Europe or the US, where big supermarket chains dominate the multi brand market. For those in advanced markets who … Read More
Darius McDermott
Darius McDermott is MD of Chelsea Financial Services and Chairman of the Association of Independent Discount Brokers. Chelsea was founded in 1983 and was the first intermediary to discount initial charges on unit trusts and bonds, and later PEPs and ISAs. Darius has 17 years industry experience and his specialities are fund research and investor behaviour, as well as being able to make sense of financial markets for the man on the street. Follow him on Twitter @DariusMcDermott .
As we at the start of a new technology cycle?
New technology cycles tend to occur every 10 years or so. A few decades ago, mainframes were all the rage, while, at the turn of the century, the internet boomed in the dot.com era. Today we are talking mobile devices … Read More
Gold and silver mining shares – risky but rewarding?
One of the golden rules of investment forecasting is to make a prediction on either the price or the date but never both. Last November, my favourite precious metal bull, Ian Williams, manager of the WAY Charteris Gold Fund, was … Read More
Which markets and funds have performed best and worst since 2003′s market low?
On 12th March 2003 the FTSE 100 bottomed at 3.287, its lowest level for 15 years and a level not seen again in the last decade, even in the midst of the global financial crisis. Back then investors were still … Read More
Andy Parsons
Andy Parsons is Head of Investment Research at The Share Centre . He joined in 2006 as a fully-qualified financial adviser and has over 23 years experience. He manages and develops the services offered by The Share Centre’s Advice team. Andy takes a broad view of financial planning and is a regular contributor of general financial advice and articles to the media.
Commodities Outlook: ‘Focus on the long term’
Andy Parsons, head of investment research at The Share Centre, discusses the outlook for commodities. Investors interested in commodities should look beyond current short-term concerns, such as the European debt crisis, and focus on the medium to longer term. Over … Read More
Investing in Europe
Andy Parsons highlights the potential benefit of investing in Europe. Investing in funds that are exposed to countries that form part of the European Union psychologically provides UK investors with a natural progression into overseas markets. This is partly due … Read More
Active vs. Passive funds
Andy Parsons, head of investment research at The Share Centre, examines the differences between active and passive funds and the benefits each has to offer investors. The debate over active and passively managed investments is one that continues to claim … Read More
John Kingham
John Kingham is author of the popular blog UK Value Investor. His aim is to help investors learn how to automate and improve their investment process by filtering out the short term noise and media hype; building a risk-appropriate portfolio of value stocks using repeatable, systematic and yet relatively simple strategies.UK Value Investor
Should you adjust your portfolio when the UK recession ends?
Adjusting an investment portfolio to fit the changing economic climate is one of the most obvious things an investor can do. During the tech-boom of the 1990s the smart money was in high tech companies; even many blue-chip technology companies … Read More
5 things you should know before you buy BT shares
BT shares are a popular with many investors. It’s a big company and a market leader in a safe, steady industry which is relatively insulated from economic turbulence. Most of the time that’s the sort of thing I go for … Read More
Bovis Homes doubles profit – is it time to buy?
A few days ago Bovis Homes hit the headlines with reports of profits and dividends doubling. Some top investment pundits have even gone so far as to say the shares are a buy, so I thought I’d take a look … Read More
The Psy-Fi Blog
Tim Richards is a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets. He is author of the widely read The Psy-Fi Blog, which presents the world of finance through the lens of psychology, replacing personal opinion with academic research and worthless assertion with logical argument. All while never losing a chance to raise a laugh at the madness of the markets.
Keynesian Investing: Changing Facts, Changing Minds
Changing His Mind David Chambers and Elroy Dimson have published a wonderful paper on Keynes the Stock Market Investor, which analyses John Maynard Keynes’ remarkable investment record as the effective Chief Investment Officer of Kings College Cambridge over a period … Read More
Forsaken liberty, A behavioural legacy?
Nudged to Conservatism One of the recurring themes we keep hitting here is the balance between freedom and behavioural intervention. Nudge theories, for instance, assume that pushing people in a direction that’s good for them is an unadulterated benefit to … Read More
Investor decisions – Experience is still not enough (but it helps a bit)
Weaselly satisfied The idea that personal experience isn’t enough to help investors make better decisions is one we’ve investigated before; particularly in Investors Decisions - Experience Is Not Enough. The general idea is that our personal observations don’t generalize, because market behaviour … Read More
Edmund Harriss
Edmund Harriss is lead manager of the Guinness Asia Focus Fund and the Guinness China and Hong Kong fund and has managed Asian Funds for for over 14 years both from London and Hong Kong. Edmund is dedicated to understanding agents of change as it “allows us to anticipate and prepare for the future”. This blog features contributions from Edmund Harriss and co-manager James Weir.
China: Huawei, BoP and Rare Earths worry the West
James Weir from Guinness Asset Management analyses the latest stories on China this week, as the West frets over rare earths and Comms giant Huawei’s aspirations. BoP until you drop China’s balance of payments has recorded a deficit in the … Read More
China – Currency and Corruption
Guinness Asset Management’s James Weir gives his personal assessment of the latest news from China China Takes a Big Step to Make the Yuan a Rival to the Dollar – Time China banks took 29 percent of 2011 global profit: … Read More
China: Behind the headlines
Mindful Money discusses the latest China news with Guinness Asset Management’s Asia expert Edmund Harriss; Is China a kleptocracy? How is Iran effecting oil imports? And is China facing an economic slowdown? The Macroeconomics of Chinese kleptocracy – Bronte … Read More
Tim Guinness
Tim Guinness founded Guinness Asset Managementin 2003 and manages the £200m Guinness Global Energy Fund. “Many people think my views are controversial. That’s not how I see it – they may stand contrary to the prevailing market sentiment, but they are the product of detailed, independent research and they will not be swayed by the caprice of the markets.” This blog features contributions from Tim and the Global Energy Fund co-managers.
Awash with oil?
By Will Riley A new study on global oil supply published by the Harvard Kennedy School has garnered several headlines in the press over the past few weeks. The paper (“Oil: the next revolution”) focuses on the idea that the … Read More
Tim Guinness takes on The Economist
In the blog this week Tim Guinness, energy investment specialist at Guinness Asset Management, responds to The Economist’s Lexington column “How not to manage a boom” on the politics of energy policy in the United States. The Economist article is … Read More
Biogas rises and Ethanol falls
Edward Guinness from Guinness Asset Management analyses the respective rise and fall of Biogas and Ethanol Biogas comes of age As biogas becomes big business, it’s creating new opportunities for all involved in managing food waste. Biogas companies face a … Read More
The Value Perspective
The Value Perspective is a blog written by a team of three UK based value investors; Nick Kirrage, Kevin Murphy and Andrew Lyddon. Value investing is a proven, long-term investment strategy which exploits swings in stockmarket sentiment by selecting the companies that are valued at less than their true worth and waiting for a share price correction. They have adopted a unique and proven approach to value investing, and have consistently demonstrated market-leading performance on the UK Equities desk at Schroders. @Thevalueteam.
Investors, like motorists, are safer when they have to think for themselves
By Kevin Murphy. In Too many lifeboats, we discussed the unintended consequences of regulation in the extraordinary context of the sinking of the Titanic but here we will do so informed by something far more day-to-day – the humble traffic … Read More
A new chart underlines an old truth about value investing
By Andrew Lyddon. The chart below (click image to increase size) shows the rolling 10-year total real return achieved by the S&P 500 index over the last 110 years. Analysts at Morgan Stanley have then ‘decomposed’ that into the three … Read More
Profitability of commodities producers can be a costly business
By Andrew Lyddon. In articles such as Emerging risk, we have considered the ongoing profitability – or otherwise – of miners and other commodities producers. One tool for assessing this, used by the industry itself, are ‘cost curves’, which map … Read More
Nick Cann
Nick Cann CFP has been CEO of the Institute of Financial Planning for 13 years. He has overseen significant change in the Financial Planning world and has strong views on the subject. He sat on the FSA’s Distribution Review working group looking at Professionalism and Reputation and continues to sit on relevant panels and working groups. He is a previous winner of IFA Personality of the Year at the Professional Adviser awards and voted most influential person working with IFAs in 2008. Follow him on twitter @nickcanncfp.
Inspiring Trust – A keystone for the profession
Inspiring Trust is a challenge for all of us involved with financial services. It is a subject that we’ll be addressing at the IFP’s Annual conference 1-3 October but, more importantly, it’s a topic that should be properly discussed in … Read More
The future of the advisory industry
Q&A with Nick Cann, Chief Executive of the Institute of Financial Planning (IFP), the UK professional body for those committed to the development of the multi-disciplinary profession of Financial Planning. Mindful Money: There has always been a community of … Read More
Financial Services should ignore Social Media at their peril
In this era of the consumer and instant information and communication, Financial Services really needs to up its game if the traditional names aren’t to be overtaken by the big consumer brands. In the UK, regulation and a lack of … Read More
