Emerging markets tend to do well when Europe struggles and vice versa

Post the derivatives expiry, noise traders began obsessing about the Federal Reserve  (Fed) and whether it would drop the word ‘patient’. The fact that it did so was seen as enough of a reason to sell the dollar, triggering a … Read More

Posted in Emerging Markets, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Cautious regulators may be preventing QE in Europe from generating much growth

Two Friday the 13th’s  in a row, and the “ides” of March thrown in for good measure, not a good few  weeks for the superstitious perhaps, and equities generally have certainly seen a pickup in volatility, while US equities have … Read More

Posted in Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures | Leave a comment

Technology’s advance making GDP look even more redundant / Apple the carmaker? Engine and transmission no longer barriers to entry

The European Central Bank (ECB) finally came out with the details for QE to start on Monday and last through until September, with purchases running at an estimated 60bn a month. Only around a fifth of these will be asset … Read More

Posted in Manufacturing | Leave a comment

Investors need to be wary about anti-business rhetoric from Europe’s politicians

The market no longer fears contagion from ‘Grexit’ and continues to follow the QE playbook of buying assets and selling the euro. Investors need to be wary however of growing anti-business rhetoric from politicians across Europe. Those complaining that in … Read More

Posted in China, Currency, Eurozone, Japan | Leave a comment

Is China now a developed country not a developing one?

Visiting Australia last week I was presented with the almost impossible task (for me at least) of giving a presentation on my view on the world in only 10 minutes. The occasion was a conference known as the Chief Economists’ … Read More

Posted in China | Leave a comment

Forecasting GDP, unemployment and inflation is largely pointless. But what should investors be looking at instead?

Forecasting GDP, unemployment and inflation is not only difficult, but largely pointless. Even if we could do it successfully they tell us little about existing let alone future corporate profitability and in a world of QE nor do they have … Read More

Posted in Investing | Leave a comment

Will we see Dollar/Euro parity? And learning the lessons of leverage and liquidity

At the beginning of the year, the consensus was that this year would be all about the dollar. So far it has been all about the Euro. As 1700 private jets flew into Davos so that their gilded occupants can … Read More

Posted in China, Eurozone | Leave a comment

Do the Swiss expect ‘shock and awe’ QE from the ECB and what countries or investors are really feeling the Swiss franc pain?

The move by the Swiss to abandon their ‘peg’ to the euro took the markets completely by surprise, not least because  the vice-chairman of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had declared “we are convinced that the minimum exchange rate must … Read More

Posted in Currency, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The times are changing for Hong Kong’s tycoons

Markets remain broadly flat for the year, but merger and acquisition activity has generated a lot of excitement, particularly in the healthcare sector where Pfizer’s  attempt to merge with AstraZeneca has focussed attention on a variety of issues. For those … Read More

Posted in M&A | Leave a comment

Distress in the oil market risks distress in the high yield bonds of energy producers

The VIX, which has been subdued for much of the year, jumped sharply last week to a level that is the highest December level for the last five years except for 2011. However, we suspect that much of the market … Read More

Posted in Oil | Leave a comment
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