Forecasting GDP, unemployment and inflation is largely pointless. But what should investors be looking at instead?
Forecasting GDP, unemployment and inflation is not only difficult, but largely pointless. Even if we could do it successfully they tell us little about existing let alone future corporate profitability and in a world of QE nor do they have … Read More
At the beginning of the year, the consensus was that this year would be all about the dollar. So far it has been all about the Euro. As 1700 private jets flew into Davos so that their gilded occupants can … Read More
Do the Swiss expect ‘shock and awe’ QE from the ECB and what countries or investors are really feeling the Swiss franc pain?
The move by the Swiss to abandon their ‘peg’ to the euro took the markets completely by surprise, not least because the vice-chairman of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had declared “we are convinced that the minimum exchange rate must … Read More
Markets remain broadly flat for the year, but merger and acquisition activity has generated a lot of excitement, particularly in the healthcare sector where Pfizer’s attempt to merge with AstraZeneca has focussed attention on a variety of issues. For those … Read More
The VIX, which has been subdued for much of the year, jumped sharply last week to a level that is the highest December level for the last five years except for 2011. However, we suspect that much of the market … Read More
After 11 straight days of gains, the Shanghai Composite hit some volatility today on discussions about restrictions on margin financing. This is to be welcomed, leverage is always a destabilising factor in markets and there is no doubt that leverage … Read More
US shoppers have spent $50bn extra that would have gone on gasoline but watch out for a strengthening dollar
The Thanksgiving holiday always leads to lower volumes in markets and a seasonal focus on the US consumer as the ‘Black Friday’ and now cyber Monday consumption statistics are analysed for insights into the strength or otherwise of the US … Read More
The new Chinese Silk Road should bring a positive return on capital, drive trade and make the economy more efficient
Next week sees Thanksgiving in the US and effectively the start of ‘the holidays’, producing shorter trading weeks and lots of choppy data. The G20 summit in Brisbane produced more positive news from China on trade, in this case with … Read More
Japan set for snap election to help drive reforms / Will the mid terms force a decision on Keystone XL pipeline?
Another week and another surprise from Japan. This time we are led to understand there will be a snap election, probably on December 14th, to act as a referendum on the need to raise the consumption tax for a second … Read More
Last week the US ended their QE and the Japanese accelerated theirs, pushing the yen down and the Nikkei up. Some regard this as little more than a week yen policy, but it does have other direct impacts. Unlike the … Read More
Mark Tinker is head of AXA Framlington Asia, AXA Investment Managers. Mark moved to Hong Kong in September 2013 to support the expansion of the AXA Framlington franchise in Asia. His role involves working closely with the distribution teams in Asia to develop business in the region and supporting the development of our Asian equity capability. Mark joined AXA Framlington in November 2006 and managed the AXA Framlington Global Opportunities Fund from September 2007 to end of August 2013. Mark was previously Global Strategist at Execution Limited. He worked for Commerzbank as Head of Equity and Debt Strategy. Prior to this, he worked with HSBC James Capel as Head of UK Strategy and with UBS Warburg, where he ran their Pan European Equity Strategy team. Mark began his career as an Economist at Williams and Glynn (now RBS) after graduating with an honours degree from Durham University in 1983.