Mark Tinker’s 15 global themes and ideas

Not a conventional Market Thinking to close 2015, nor a set of guesses and predictions for 2016. Instead it is more a series of 15 ideas for discussion and contemplation over the break. These are neither forecasts nor predictions, rather … Read More

Posted in Asset Allocation | Leave a comment

The use of high yield debt to fund shale oil was a classic misallocation of capital following QE

Running into year-end most activity is position squaring and short covering rather than initiation of active positions. The FOMC on Wednesday is the peg on which to hang this week’s activities, much as last week reflected the unwind from the … Read More

Posted in China | Leave a comment

It is Europe not China that is seeking “currency depreciation to stimulate the economy”

Thanksgiving last week made for a shortened trading session and most books were positioned ‘flat’. What the US refers to as the ‘holiday season’ is now underway and excepting some likely activity around the options expiry on December 18th, it … Read More

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

China’s data reflects the new reality of a strong consumer, a slowing manufacturer and more efficient capital allocation

Any short term market commentary seems rather fatuous in the wake of the terrible events in Paris last Friday. Traders will likely look to precedent – the London and Madrid bombings, or even 9/11, but beyond an initial flight to … Read More

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The UK has services investment opportunities for China

The Chinese data this week showing 6.9% gross domestic product (GDP) growth produced some intriguing reactions. On the one hand, lots of commentators sniffed at the accuracy of the data while on the other hand, many of them (even the … Read More

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Less concerned with fundamentals: more concerned with long term health of markets

With a new quarter starting it will be interesting to see how much of the sell-off in recent weeks has been window dressing and delta hedging from the derivative markets and whether there are genuine long term value investors prepared to … Read More

Posted in Investing, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

A fundamental shift is coming in utilities’ business model

The Fed didn’t raise interest rates last week, despite the US economic indicators suggesting that they should, for the same reason that they haven’t moved for the last seven years (or increased for the last nine years) – global market … Read More

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Back to the 1990s as markets become less correlated

Markets are becoming less correlated with one another which, as analysts at Citi point out, suggests an environment more like the mid-90s than the mid noughties and an era where both asset allocation and stock picking become more important. Major … Read More

Posted in China | Leave a comment

China – beware the noise markets and the über bulls and über bears

Investors need to recognise that the received narrative on markets is usually created by short term traders. On China this has swung from ‘uber bull’ to ‘uber bear’, while the reality has always been half way. The market moves in … Read More

Posted in China, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

China’s intervention in markets was trying to prevent a bubble unlike market interventions in the West

Last week, we discussed how China was being criticised in the west for its attempts to stabilise its financial markets, often by the very same people who were all too keen for the G4 to intervene in previous market panics. … Read More

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