With the strong UK employment market is it time for Forward Guidance mark three?

The credit crunch era has had some unexpected effects on the UK labour market. If we look for positives we have seen employment outperform and unemployment underperform what many would have expected if they had been told what would happen … Read More

Posted in Bank of England, Forward Guidance, General Economics, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues, Unemployment, Wages | Tagged , , , , , | 13 Comments

The UK economy combines both house price inflation and goods price disinflationary pressure

The headline for official figures recording UK consumer inflation has improved considerably over the past twelve months. For example if we look back a year to March 2013 we see that the annual rate of consumer inflation was 2.8% as opposed … Read More

Posted in Bank of England, General Economics, House Prices, Inflation, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | Tagged , , , , | 26 Comments

Is this finally the Grecovery we keep being promised?

The situation regarding the economy of Greece has been one where we have been promised a turn for the better for a couple of years now. However these promises have time and time again been met by a reality which … Read More

Posted in Euro zone Crisis, European Central Bank, General Economics, Greek Financial Crisis, IMF | Tagged , , , , , , | 7 Comments

What next for for Abenomics and Japan? A return to nuclear power?

One of the themes of this blog has been that the economics experiment being carried out in Japan by the government of Shinzo Abe in Japan is likely to be unsuccessful,for the majority of Japanese anyway. Today I will open … Read More

Posted in Bonds, General Economics, Inflation, Japan's Economic Situation, Money Supply, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures | Tagged , , , , | 32 Comments

How has the UK Student Loan system gone so wrong?

One of the troubling features of these times is the emergence and then the expansion of the influence of student loans in the UK. After all back in the day when I went to the London School of Economics as … Read More

Posted in Debt, General Economics, Tax, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | Tagged , , , | 33 Comments

Is this a Goldilocks scenario or a classic pre-election boom for the UK economy?

The latest news on the UK economy has been very positive. The strong industrial and manufacturing production figures that I analysed yesterday were followed by more good news in the afternoon. From the NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social … Read More

Posted in Forward Guidance, GDP, General Economics, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | Tagged , , , , | 22 Comments

The UK plans to revise its Gross Domestic Product much higher in September

The UK Office for National Statistics yesterday announced its plans to undergo a substantial revision of UK economic output measurement. So the current actual improvement in the UK economy will find that when we come to the 30th of September it … Read More

Posted in GDP, General Economics, Growth, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | Tagged , , , | 27 Comments

So does recalculating or rebasing GDP make Nigeria better off?

Over the weekend something extraordinary took place in Lagos, Nigeria. Indeed fans of Nigeria are likely to regard it as analagous to the “something wonderful” of the Film 2001 A Space Odyssey. Let me hand over for a moment to … Read More

Posted in Debt, GDP, General Economics | Tagged , , | 13 Comments

What are the chances and consequences of an economic contraction in Russia?

Events are moving apace concerning Russia and its economy right now and this morning has already had an announcement which will resonate amongst those concerned. From Reuters.  Russia raised the gas price for Ukraine on Thursday for the second time this … Read More

Posted in Currency, GDP, General Economics, Growth, Inflation | Tagged , , , , | 16 Comments

The economic effects of the UK pension and annuity changes announced in the Budget

The UK Budget Statement saw one area where the earth genuinely did move and this was in the treatment of UK pensions savings. This has a myriad of impacts on individual circumstances as well as the overall economy and I … Read More

Posted in Annuities, General Economics, Gilts, Growth, Income drawdown, Pensions, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | Tagged , , , | 26 Comments
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