Will we see German economic growth based on domestic consumption and not exports?

Yesterday saw the relection of Angela Merkel in Germany as her party gathered an increased share of the vote in Germany. However in spite of this, her tendency to cannibalise coalition partners, means that the coalition still required by the … Read More

Posted in Euro zone Crisis, General Economics, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 19 Comments

When,when,when will the UK public finances really improve?

Today sees the publication of the latest figures (August) for the UK public finances and on a tactical level I am keen to see if there has been an effect from the mini-boom which started in the UK economy in … Read More

Posted in GDP, General Economics, Stagflation, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | Tagged , , , | 35 Comments

After the Federal Reserve and its taper no-show what value does forward guidance have now?

Today is definitely the morning after the night before! The central bank of the United States the Federal Reserve showed that it had indeed been pondering the topic I discussed on Monday. What if they now decide not too taper … Read More

Posted in General Economics, Interest rates, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, The US Economy | Tagged , , , | 29 Comments

What now for Portugal and its economy? Another IMF mea culpa?

This week the Troika made up of the European Commission,European Central Bank and the International Monetary fund is visiting Portugal to decide on its economic progress. We do not yet know if they will declare their by now familiar harbinger of … Read More

Posted in Euro zone Crisis, General Economics, IMF, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures | Tagged , , , | 13 Comments

UK Inflation is down according to CPI but up according to RPI and HPI !

Today sees the UK inflation numbers updated for August and with it will come a familiar pattern of it being over the 2% official target for the Consumer Price Index. This has been the case since December 2009 in spite of … Read More

Posted in Bank of England, GDP, General Economics, Gilts, Inflation, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | Tagged , , , , | 21 Comments

As Summers is now over what will the US Federal Reserve do in autumn and winter?

Last night brought a surprise announcement from one of the two main candidates to succeed Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank next January. From the Washington Post here is the crucial part of the letter written by … Read More

Posted in Emerging Markets, General Economics, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, The US Economy, US Treasuries, Yield | Tagged , , , | 10 Comments

Can and should UK house price rises be capped? And by whom exactly?

The last 24 hours have been full of news about the state of the UK housing market and now we find that even the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) has weighed in with this suggestion. The Bank of England’s … Read More

Posted in General Economics, Gilts, House Prices, Inflation, Mark Carney, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | Tagged , , , , | 29 Comments

What are the economics and problems of the English football Premier League?

This morning the BBC has produced an update on the price of football in 2013 and by this they mean the cost of attending a match. On this basis they declare this. It found average ticket prices across English football’s … Read More

Posted in Commodities, Economy, General Economics, Luxury goods, Markets, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | Tagged , , , , | 31 Comments

Where does falling UK unemployment but also falling real wages leave forward guidance?

The labour market report in the UK has been one of the most important datapoints about the state of play in the economy throughout the credit crunch. Fortunately the level of unemployment has remained relatively low considering both the length … Read More

Posted in Bank of England, General Economics, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, Stagflation, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | Tagged , , , , , , | 14 Comments

Whatever happened to manufacturing and industrial production in France?

Today opens with news of a strike against pension reform in France. However this “reform” only currently applies to the private-sector as we note that the larger potential deficit in public-sector pensions is being ignored. How very Euro area! It remains … Read More

Posted in Euro zone Crisis, General Economics, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, Stagflation | Tagged , , , | 12 Comments
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