Chinese September data more evidence of global resilience

Stronger-than-expected Chinese industrial output in September confirms that global production rebounded solidly last month, casting doubt on recent growth pessimism based partly on weak August data. Chinese output rose by a seasonally-adjusted* 1.7% on the month after a 0.5% loss … Read More

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September data suggesting global industrial resilience

A surprise August drop in global industrial output contributed to current market growth worries but incoming September data suggest a strong rebound. Two countries in the G7 plus emerging E7 aggregate monitored here have so far reported for September: the … Read More

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Global money trends flashing amber not red

Global six-month real narrow money growth – the key forecasting indicator monitored here – appears to have partially reversed a sharp August fall in September, based on data covering 60% of the aggregate. The recent behaviour of the indicator suggests … Read More

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Why commodities may be signalling brighter economic prospects

The recent fall in commodity prices is widely viewed as evidence of a weak global economy. Relative commodity moves, however, may signal improving economic prospects. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI commodity price index has fallen by 12% in US dollar … Read More

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When will global growth revive?

Global six-month industrial output growth was expected here to recover from mid-year, following a rise in real narrow money expansion in early 2014 and an accompanying firming of leading indicators. It appears, instead, to have fallen to a new low … Read More

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ECB reaction: no surprises as “QE lite” proceeds

The ECB today provided more details about its asset-backed securities (ABS) and covered bonds purchase programmes but gave no encouragement to forecasts that it will soon begin buying government bonds on a large scale. This may reflect a judgement that … Read More

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Global money trends flashing amber

Global six-month real narrow money growth fell sharply in August, based on data covering 90% of the aggregate followed here. September / October data should be awaited to assess whether this represents a genuine change of trend; if so, the … Read More

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UK job openings suggesting early earnings pick-up

The August Inflation Report introduced a new reason for continuing to delay a rise in interest rates – the labour supply, it claimed, has been expanding faster than expected, explaining the recent puzzling combination of strong employment growth with weak … Read More

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UK Bank Return – BoE now least open of major CBs

The Bank of England will this week publish the last ever Bank Return – a weekly summary statement of its assets and liabilities. The Bank claims that it needs to hide its balance sheet in order to fulfil its responsibility … Read More

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Global cycle resemblance to 1970s probably ending

Previous posts extending back to 2009 suggested that the global economic recovery from the 2008-09 “great recession” would mirror the revival after the 1974-75 “first oil shock” downturn. Industrial output has indeed followed a similar path but is now starting … Read More

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