Global money trends flashing amber

Global six-month real narrow money growth fell sharply in August, based on data covering 90% of the aggregate followed here. September / October data should be awaited to assess whether this represents a genuine change of trend; if so, the … Read More

Posted in Economy | Leave a comment

UK job openings suggesting early earnings pick-up

The August Inflation Report introduced a new reason for continuing to delay a rise in interest rates – the labour supply, it claimed, has been expanding faster than expected, explaining the recent puzzling combination of strong employment growth with weak … Read More

Posted in Employment | 1 Comment

UK Bank Return – BoE now least open of major CBs

The Bank of England will this week publish the last ever Bank Return – a weekly summary statement of its assets and liabilities. The Bank claims that it needs to hide its balance sheet in order to fulfil its responsibility … Read More

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

Global cycle resemblance to 1970s probably ending

Previous posts extending back to 2009 suggested that the global economic recovery from the 2008-09 “great recession” would mirror the revival after the 1974-75 “first oil shock” downturn. Industrial output has indeed followed a similar path but is now starting … Read More

Posted in Global growth | Leave a comment

US earnings pick-up suggesting less dovish Fed

Rising US average earnings growth casts doubt on the Federal Open Market Committee’s current assessment that “there remains significant under-utilization of labor resources”. Annual growth in average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased to … Read More

Posted in US equities | Leave a comment

Global leading indicator still signalling strength

The global longer leading indicator* followed here rose in July, supporting optimism about near-term economic prospects. The leading indicator fell between June and December 2013, correctly signalling an economic slowdown during the first half of 2014. Six-month industrial output expansion … Read More

Posted in Global growth, Global Real Money | Leave a comment

US narrow money suggesting early 2015 economic slowdown

US narrow money rose strongly during the first half of 2014 but slowed in July and probably contracted last month, judging from weekly data through 25 August. Barring a strong September rebound, this suggests that the economy will lose momentum … Read More

Posted in US economy | Leave a comment

UK 2008-09 recession no worse than 1979-82

The UK 2008-09 recession may no longer warrant the label “great”. GDP is now estimated to have declined by 6.0% over five quarters in 2008-09 versus 7.2% over six quarters previously. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has repeatedly claimed … Read More

Posted in UK economy, UK politics | 1 Comment

Global money trends still positive but losing momentum

Global economic growth should firm further near-term but is likely to moderate again in late 2014 / early 2015, judging from July money supply data. The forecasting approach here focuses on the six-month rate of change of global real narrow … Read More

Posted in Global growth | Leave a comment

UK monetary backdrop still expansionary

UK narrow money growth slowed in July while broad money growth was little changed: monetary trends, overall, appear consistent with continued solid economic expansion through early 2015. The preferred narrow and broad aggregates here are M1 and M4 excluding financial … Read More

Posted in Monetary Trends | Leave a comment
Page 1 of 6012345678910...203040...Last »