UK economics-based election predictor suggests hung parliament

An analysis of economic influences on political popularity suggests that the Conservatives will move ahead of Labour in the polls by the time of the May 2015 general election but their lead will be insufficient to deliver a majority in … Read More

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Is UK national saving too low?

The Office for National Statistics recently announced that its implementation of a new accounting framework in September 2014 will substantially boost the household saving ratio. Specifically, the increasing pension entitlements of members of funded defined benefit schemes will, from September, … Read More

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Chinese money / credit trends consistent with moderate growth

Chinese equities reacted negatively to news that annual growth in the M2 money supply fell to 12.1% in March – below the 13% official target for 2014 and the lowest on record in data extending back to 1998. The forecasting … Read More

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Why has Japan’s QE blitz failed?

The MSCI Japan index fell by 9.1% in US dollar terms between end-2013 and yesterday, while the All-Countries World index was unchanged (-0.1%). Japanese stocks have been underperforming since July, when real narrow money growth started to diverge negatively from … Read More

Posted in Japan | 1 Comment

Global leading indicators confirming summer growth rebound

Global* short- and longer-term leading indicators** support the forecast here that six-month industrial output growth will pick up from a trough to be reached in the late spring. The two indicators have led growth turning points by 2-3 months and … Read More

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UK capacity strains growing; activity news still surprising positively

The first-quarter British Chambers of Commerce survey supports the assessment here that recent strong growth has exhausted spare capacity and is starting to put upward pressure on inflation, implying a significant probability that the Bank of England will be forced … Read More

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In defence of the ECB’s hold decision

The ECB is under fire for keeping policy stable despite supposed deflationary dangers. Posts here were highly critical of the central bank in 2011, when it tightened policy in the face of real money supply contraction, thereby guaranteeing a recession. … Read More

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UK household wealth / income ratio approaching new record

UK households’ net housing and financial wealth (i.e. the value of housing and financial assets minus financial liabilities) rose by an estimated* 8.3% during 2013, pushing its ratio to annual disposable income up to 7.14 – close to a record … Read More

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Global money trends signalling summer growth rebound

Global* real narrow money trends continue to suggest that industrial output growth will pick up from a trough to be reached in the late spring. Confidence in this forecast would be strengthened by an upturn in the longer leading indicator … Read More

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UK onshore GDP exceeds prior peak in January

First-quarter GDP growth is on course to match or beat the Bank of England’s 0.9% expectation, judging from January output figures for services, industry and construction, together accounting for 99% of the economy. Output levels in January were above fourth-quarter … Read More

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