Financial crises in peripheral / emerging economies are often symptomatic of tightening global liquidity conditions. However, Greece has lacked market access for many months and its crisis reflects the government’s voluntary decision to reject an EU / IMF support programme. … Read More
Chinese economic news is likely to improve over the summer but narrow money trends suggest that growth will remain sub-par. The PBOC on Friday released additional monetary data for May, allowing the calculation of the “true” M1 measure monitored here. … Read More
The balance of US activity news has improved so far in June, supporting the widely-held view that the economy is rebounding from weather- and strike-related weakness in early 2015. Monetary trends suggest that the pick-up will extend into late 2015 … Read More
US job openings (vacancies) surged in April, consistent with the forecast here of economic reacceleration from the spring, following a rebound in real narrow money growth in late 2014 / early 2015 – see previous post. The job openings rate … Read More
Global monetary trends have been suggesting faster economic growth in the second half of 2015 – see previous post. May business surveys are consistent with this scenario: a weighted average of G7 manufacturing purchasing managers’ new orders indices rose significantly, … Read More
Researchers at the San Francisco Fed claim that US GDP seasonal adjustments are faulty and the economy grew by 1.8% at an annualised rate in the first quarter, rather than the reported 0.2%. Since unusually bad weather probably depressed performance, … Read More
Here’s a productivity-enhancing suggestion for students of the Bank of England’s Inflation Report. To deduce the policy message, ignore the copious verbiage and focus on a single statistic – the mean forecast for inflation in two years’ time based on … Read More
The best measure of US average wages is the quarterly employment cost index (ECI), which adjusts for job shifts between occupations and industries. Annual growth in ECI wages rose to 2.5% in the first quarter of 2015, the fastest since … Read More
British electors, on the face of it, are an ungrateful bunch. Consumer confidence, as measured by the EU Commission / GfK monthly indicator, is at the top of its range over the last 40 years – in the 96th percentile, … Read More
Narrow money trends last autumn predicted that the Eurozone and Japanese economies would regain momentum while the US and China would slow, a shift confirmed by recent coincident data. Current monetary trends suggest that the US and Eurozone will grow … Read More
Simon Ward is Henderson's chief economist. He has worked as an economist in financial markets for over 20 years and believes that changes in monetary conditions are a key driver of both the economic cycle and movements in financial markets; accordingly, a forecasting approach emphasising monetary analysis has a better chance of success.
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