UK money trends suggesting steady growth

UK monetary trends remain solid, casting doubt on forecasts of an imminent economic slowdown – the consensus projection is for GDP growth to fall from 3.1% in 2014 to 2.6% in 2015, according to the Treasury’s monthly survey. The preferred … Read More

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Why UK monetary policy is still loosening

UK Bank rate has remained extraordinarily low for more than five years for two fundamental reasons. First, sustained loose monetary policy has been needed to offset various drags on economic growth. Secondly, the spread between commercial bank interest rates and … Read More

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Eurozone money trends also signalling improving outlook

Eurozone money measures grew solidly again in September, suggesting improving economic prospects and initial success for the ECB’s recent easing measures. Narrow money M1 has risen by 2.5%, or 10.3% annualised, since June, when the ECB cut its main refinancing … Read More

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Japanese money trends signalling improving outlook

Posts last year (e.g. here) suggested that Japanese economic and equity market performance would disappoint in 2014. This pessimism was based on the failure of QE to boost monetary growth significantly and the expected inflation impact of the April sales … Read More

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Chinese September data more evidence of global resilience

Stronger-than-expected Chinese industrial output in September confirms that global production rebounded solidly last month, casting doubt on recent growth pessimism based partly on weak August data. Chinese output rose by a seasonally-adjusted* 1.7% on the month after a 0.5% loss … Read More

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September data suggesting global industrial resilience

A surprise August drop in global industrial output contributed to current market growth worries but incoming September data suggest a strong rebound. Two countries in the G7 plus emerging E7 aggregate monitored here have so far reported for September: the … Read More

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Global money trends flashing amber not red

Global six-month real narrow money growth – the key forecasting indicator monitored here – appears to have partially reversed a sharp August fall in September, based on data covering 60% of the aggregate. The recent behaviour of the indicator suggests … Read More

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Why commodities may be signalling brighter economic prospects

The recent fall in commodity prices is widely viewed as evidence of a weak global economy. Relative commodity moves, however, may signal improving economic prospects. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI commodity price index has fallen by 12% in US dollar … Read More

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When will global growth revive?

Global six-month industrial output growth was expected here to recover from mid-year, following a rise in real narrow money expansion in early 2014 and an accompanying firming of leading indicators. It appears, instead, to have fallen to a new low … Read More

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ECB reaction: no surprises as “QE lite” proceeds

The ECB today provided more details about its asset-backed securities (ABS) and covered bonds purchase programmes but gave no encouragement to forecasts that it will soon begin buying government bonds on a large scale. This may reflect a judgement that … Read More

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