Previous posts suggested that global economic growth would revive from mid-2015, reflecting stronger developed-world demand following a pick-up in real money expansion in late 2014 / early 2015. Incoming business survey results are consistent with this forecast. The first chart … Read More
Eurozone monetary trends continue to suggest a positive economic outlook. Narrow money M1 rose by a strong 0.9% in June, with the broader M3 measure up by 0.3%. Loans to the private sector, adjusted for sales and securitisation, were unchanged … Read More
Emerging market equities have underperformed developed markets by a further 5.5% so far in 2015, according to MSCI indices. The price to book ratio of the MSCI Emerging Markets index stood at 1.55 at end-June versus 2.24 for the MSCI … Read More
The MSCI All-Country World Index in US dollars was down by 6.5% from its 21 May all-time peak as of Wednesday, the recent low. The modest response to “Grexit” risk and Chinese stock market chaos is consistent with the assessment … Read More
The big story of the Budget is a dramatic reduction in the squeeze on departmental spending. The Chancellor made room for less spending restraint by cutting deep into the welfare budget and raising taxes significantly. He also allowed his borrowing … Read More
The comfortable “no” majority – the opposite result to that predicted by betting markets – will, at least, serve to accelerate the conclusion of the crisis. The priority of the Eurozone authorities will shift from securing a deal with Greece … Read More
Financial crises in peripheral / emerging economies are often symptomatic of tightening global liquidity conditions. However, Greece has lacked market access for many months and its crisis reflects the government’s voluntary decision to reject an EU / IMF support programme. … Read More
Chinese economic news is likely to improve over the summer but narrow money trends suggest that growth will remain sub-par. The PBOC on Friday released additional monetary data for May, allowing the calculation of the “true” M1 measure monitored here. … Read More
The balance of US activity news has improved so far in June, supporting the widely-held view that the economy is rebounding from weather- and strike-related weakness in early 2015. Monetary trends suggest that the pick-up will extend into late 2015 … Read More
US job openings (vacancies) surged in April, consistent with the forecast here of economic reacceleration from the spring, following a rebound in real narrow money growth in late 2014 / early 2015 – see previous post. The job openings rate … Read More
Simon Ward is Henderson's chief economist. He has worked as an economist in financial markets for over 20 years and believes that changes in monetary conditions are a key driver of both the economic cycle and movements in financial markets; accordingly, a forecasting approach emphasising monetary analysis has a better chance of success.
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