Category Archives: Economy

Markets are fearful that a recent sharp fall in consumer confidence will feed through to lower spending. It is early days but August vehicle sales numbers are reassuring, with the G7 total up solidly from July to its highest level … Read More

One of the responses of central banks to the credit crunch was to lower short-term interest -rates in many cases substantially. Many did this with such enthusiasm that a new acronym was coined called ZIRP which stands for Zero Interest … Read More

US narrow money continued to surge in August, strongly suggesting a further pick-up in G7 six-month real narrow money expansion – historically the best monetary leading indicator of the world economy. US six-month real narrow money growth is the fastest … Read More

Over the past few days the situation concerning Italy and its relationship with the rest of the Euro zone has deteriorated markedly. I discussed back on the 30th of August the way that Mr. Berlusconi’s government appeared to be backsliding … Read More

The UK economy has been showing signs of a slowdown recently and as this is a week in which the Monetary Policy Committee meets there is likely to be a debate over whether more easing is needed. One member of … Read More

“We’ll tax the rich until the pips squeak” is what Dennis Healey is reported to have said, (he actually said it about property speculators). It’s topical again – speculators are in the news, so is tax and so are the … Read More

UK GDP figures are likely to receive another hit from a plunge in construction activity, at least as recorded by the Office for National Statistics. Construction orders slumped by 16% in the second quarter, breaking below the recession trough of … Read More

The credit crunch era has had various features but one recurrent one has been the strength of the so-called safe haven currencies of which the “currency twins” the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen have been at the forefront. Only … Read More

One of the current issues with the austerity policy being imposed on the peripheral countries of the Euro zone is that it is happening at a time when the overall economy in Europe is showing signs of weakening. Earlier this week … Read More

The MPC may announce a further £50 billion of asset purchases next week, according to the “MPC-ometer” model described in previous posts – despite there being no compelling monetary case for such action, as argued yesterday. The “MPC-ometer” forecasts the … Read More