Category Archives: Economy

The rise of the Swiss Franc has implications for Austria,Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania,Poland and Romania

One of the themes of this blog has been that politicians often engage in hyperbole and nearly as often in outright misrepresentation. Indeed I often quote from the apocryphal civil servant Sir Humphrey Appleby from the series Yes Minister who observed. … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 28 Comments

Greece will run out of cash in July and exactly how insolvent is the European Central Bank?

For a weekend that was supposed to end in “rapture” there was a lot of bad news running up to it. Although I suppose the arrival of the four horsemen of the apocalypse would surely come with troubles aplenty.Either way … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 15 Comments

Why have commodity markets cooled?

Investors are debating whether recent weakness in industrial commodity prices is the beginning of a lasting move reflecting “fundamentals” or a temporary set-back, possibly due to disruption caused by the Japanese earthquake or a liquidation of QE2-related speculative positions. The … Read More

Posted in Economy | Leave a comment

Japan’s experience shows that QE can be a never-ending treadmill and Gillian Tett for the IMF?

After the poor economic growth figures from Japan yesterday where Gross Domestic Product fell by 0.9% in the first quarter of 2011 or 3.7% annualised many eyes would have turned this morning to the results of the latest Bank of Japan … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 15 Comments

IMF revelations: The End of European Dominance & The Rise of Emerging Markets?

As “super-injunctions” are labelled “pointless” by the rise of ‘new’ social media sites, the world seems a smaller place for those wanting to hide potential transgressions.  Indeed, such accusations can have broad ramifications as the head of the International Monetary … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | Leave a comment

Japan is now in recession whilst the UK’s loan to Ireland is going wrong already

After discussing the travails of the Euro zone yesterday and establishing  benchmarks for what default,restructuring and reprofiling mean I was intrigued to see this come up on the news-wires. According to Reuters, European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 7 Comments

Global economy weaker but some brighter signs

As expected, lower growth in the inflation-adjusted global money supply since last autumn has led to a loss of economic momentum and a correction in equities. The odds, however, currently favour a temporary economic slowdown so equities may trade in … Read More

Posted in Economy | Leave a comment

Are Euro zone politicians and officials buying Greek Irish and Portuguese government bonds with their own money?

As this week has progressed we have seen Euro zone officials and politicians adopt their usual tactics when trying to deal with the crisis, they bicker amongst themselves. For a while the standard response was pure hyperbole as evidenced by … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 9 Comments

UK inflation: CPI surges but has RPIX peaked?

CPI inflation of 4.5% in April was far above expectations, more than reversing a fall from 4.4% to 4.0% between February and March. The late timing of Easter depressed the March number and boosted April’s reading, mainly via a surge … Read More

Posted in Economy | Leave a comment

The impact of Easter means that this months surge in UK inflation should not have been a “surprise”

This morning has seen an interesting move in the value of the Japanese Yen which for the first time in a while has weakened without central bank intervention. For example it is currently at 81.40 versus the US dollar versus … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 15 Comments