Category Archives: Economy

My critique of Adam Posen’s opinion piece in the Financial Times

Towards the end of last week Adam Posen who is a member of the UK’s Monetary Policy Committee wrote an opinion piece in the Financial Times. I wish to take the opportunity to offer a critique of his views and … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 11 Comments

UK consumers defy MPC / consensus gloom

The EU Commission UK consumer confidence index recovered strongly in May, supporting the suggestion of an improving consumer outlook in a post a month ago and a follow-up earlier this week. The index, which summarises consumer views on the economy, … Read More

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For America it is the trend in unemployment claims that is more important than recorded economic growth

Over the past five weeks or so I have been recording economic numbers which have been showing something of a slowdown for the US economy. This is a concern on several counts. Firstly she remains the worlds largest economy and … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 3 Comments

Just when Greece most needed leadership she has not been able to find it leaving default and the drachma on the table

One of the themes of the official response in the Euro zone to the economic tornado that is whipping through the peripheral members is that it is contradictory and confused and that reality is  denied. Over the past couple of days … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 29 Comments

UK GDP data: solid spring rebound with rising domestic inflation

GDP and services output data released today confirm that the economy has bounced back strongly from winter weakness while the current inflation overshoot reflects domestic income pressure as well as VAT and external factors – contrary to the MPC’s assertions. … Read More

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A question for the Bank of England, what is the true state of our banking sector?

The period of the credit crunch and indeed its aftermath was and is a difficult phase for the UK economy. We were exposed more than usual by two factors. The first is the fact that due to the size and … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 10 Comments

The rise of the Swiss Franc has implications for Austria,Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania,Poland and Romania

One of the themes of this blog has been that politicians often engage in hyperbole and nearly as often in outright misrepresentation. Indeed I often quote from the apocryphal civil servant Sir Humphrey Appleby from the series Yes Minister who observed. … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 28 Comments

Greece will run out of cash in July and exactly how insolvent is the European Central Bank?

For a weekend that was supposed to end in “rapture” there was a lot of bad news running up to it. Although I suppose the arrival of the four horsemen of the apocalypse would surely come with troubles aplenty.Either way … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 15 Comments

Why have commodity markets cooled?

Investors are debating whether recent weakness in industrial commodity prices is the beginning of a lasting move reflecting “fundamentals” or a temporary set-back, possibly due to disruption caused by the Japanese earthquake or a liquidation of QE2-related speculative positions. The … Read More

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Japan’s experience shows that QE can be a never-ending treadmill and Gillian Tett for the IMF?

After the poor economic growth figures from Japan yesterday where Gross Domestic Product fell by 0.9% in the first quarter of 2011 or 3.7% annualised many eyes would have turned this morning to the results of the latest Bank of Japan … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 15 Comments