Category Archives: Economy

Why have commodity markets cooled?

Investors are debating whether recent weakness in industrial commodity prices is the beginning of a lasting move reflecting “fundamentals” or a temporary set-back, possibly due to disruption caused by the Japanese earthquake or a liquidation of QE2-related speculative positions. The … Read More

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Japan’s experience shows that QE can be a never-ending treadmill and Gillian Tett for the IMF?

After the poor economic growth figures from Japan yesterday where Gross Domestic Product fell by 0.9% in the first quarter of 2011 or 3.7% annualised many eyes would have turned this morning to the results of the latest Bank of Japan … Read More

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IMF revelations: The End of European Dominance & The Rise of Emerging Markets?

As “super-injunctions” are labelled “pointless” by the rise of ‘new’ social media sites, the world seems a smaller place for those wanting to hide potential transgressions.  Indeed, such accusations can have broad ramifications as the head of the International Monetary … Read More

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Japan is now in recession whilst the UK’s loan to Ireland is going wrong already

After discussing the travails of the Euro zone yesterday and establishing  benchmarks for what default,restructuring and reprofiling mean I was intrigued to see this come up on the news-wires. According to Reuters, European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi … Read More

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Global economy weaker but some brighter signs

As expected, lower growth in the inflation-adjusted global money supply since last autumn has led to a loss of economic momentum and a correction in equities. The odds, however, currently favour a temporary economic slowdown so equities may trade in … Read More

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Are Euro zone politicians and officials buying Greek Irish and Portuguese government bonds with their own money?

As this week has progressed we have seen Euro zone officials and politicians adopt their usual tactics when trying to deal with the crisis, they bicker amongst themselves. For a while the standard response was pure hyperbole as evidenced by … Read More

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UK inflation: CPI surges but has RPIX peaked?

CPI inflation of 4.5% in April was far above expectations, more than reversing a fall from 4.4% to 4.0% between February and March. The late timing of Easter depressed the March number and boosted April’s reading, mainly via a surge … Read More

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The impact of Easter means that this months surge in UK inflation should not have been a “surprise”

This morning has seen an interesting move in the value of the Japanese Yen which for the first time in a while has weakened without central bank intervention. For example it is currently at 81.40 versus the US dollar versus … Read More

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Three-speed Europe now apparently includes a Greece with economic growth! Whilst Ireland raids its pensioners again

Today seems a meeting of Euro zone ministers which has two main issues, the first is the simplest which is to approve the aid package recently constructed for Portugal. The second is harder which is the subject of what to … Read More

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Is the BoE now too pessimistic about near-term inflation?

The chart shows an update of a monthly CPI inflation profile presented in a previous post together with the Bank of England’s mean forecast based on unchanged policy, estimated from chart 5.13 of the May Inflation Report. Assumptions underlying the … Read More

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