Category Archives: Economy

The impact of Easter means that this months surge in UK inflation should not have been a “surprise”

This morning has seen an interesting move in the value of the Japanese Yen which for the first time in a while has weakened without central bank intervention. For example it is currently at 81.40 versus the US dollar versus … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 15 Comments

Three-speed Europe now apparently includes a Greece with economic growth! Whilst Ireland raids its pensioners again

Today seems a meeting of Euro zone ministers which has two main issues, the first is the simplest which is to approve the aid package recently constructed for Portugal. The second is harder which is the subject of what to … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 11 Comments

Is the BoE now too pessimistic about near-term inflation?

The chart shows an update of a monthly CPI inflation profile presented in a previous post together with the Bank of England’s mean forecast based on unchanged policy, estimated from chart 5.13 of the May Inflation Report. Assumptions underlying the … Read More

Posted in Economy | 1 Comment

When you spend US $2.3 trillion dollars you do not expect both jobless claims and producer price inflation to rise

Yesterday we receieved data on an issue which to my mind is perhaps the most fundamental one in the world economy right now. Regular readers will be aware of my contention that the US Federal Reserve is in effect setting … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 6 Comments

Forecasting the UK economy has proved much too difficult for the Bank of England

Today I wish to discuss the outlook for the UK economy as published by the Bank of England yesterday but before I do so two of the themes of this blog were demonstrated on the subject of Greece. The first … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 6 Comments

UK Inflation Report: MPC endorses sustained inflation overshoot

The May Inflation Report confirms that the MPC is no longer setting monetary policy in accordance with its remit. The key measure of whether the MPC is on track to meet its target is the mean inflation forecast based on … Read More

Posted in Economy | 2 Comments

An explanation of why the European Central Bank is so against a debt restructuring for Greece Ireland and Portugal

On Monday I discussed how Greece had reached her current dire situation and gave some suggestions as to how she could begin to manoeuvre her way out of them. Sadly for her a key item in any real rescue for … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 23 Comments

More evidence of ongoing UK recovery

UK economic news remains reassuring and at odds with the unremitting gloom purveyed by the media and propaganda organisations such as the British Retail Consortium (BRC). The Monster index of online job vacancies rose by an annual 14% in April, … Read More

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The “dark side” of Quantitative Easing, what if we cannot stop?

The past few days have demonstrated what I feel will be one of the features of the next weeks and months. Some commodities markets have seen extreme volatility and today I wish to touch on the oil price. First let … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 16 Comments

Euro zone taxpayers are being punished by the European response to the Greek fiscal crisis

The end of last week had an extraordinary amount of economic news. On Thursday we had the beginning of a “flash crash” in both commodity and oil markets which saw substantial falls as the price of a barrel of crude … Read More

Posted in Economy, Investing | 23 Comments