Category Archives: UK Inflation Prospects and Issues

What does the UK version of public-sector austerity look like? Has it been abandoned?

Today I intend to take the opportunity of the publication of the latest (July 2012) set of figures for the UK public finances to examine what public-sector austerity has meant in the UK. We see and hear plenty of media hype … Read More

Posted in GDP, General Economics, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | 34 Comments

UK house prices look like they are now falling, should we welcome rather than fear that?

Welcome to sun soaked Britain which has emerged from a couple of months of rain to a week of the sort of heat and sun that Brits usually have to go abroad to find. Unfortunately the UK economy is far … Read More

Posted in Banks, General Economics, Greek Financial Crisis, House Prices, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | 44 Comments

What is the policy of the Bank of England? Are they politicians in disguise? Independence anyone?

Yesterday I attended a seminar at the Royal Statistical Society on the subject of adding house prices to the Consumer Price Index. This was slightly odd in that the impression was distinctly given that a decision had already been made … Read More

Posted in General Economics, Inflation, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | 37 Comments

How many more times can UK inflation be a “surprise” as we are being told today?

Today the UK will publish the official consumer inflation figures for July and true to form the subject is already in the news. The July figures are used for determining rail fare increases in England and Scotland in January. And … Read More

Posted in General Economics, Gilts, Inflation, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | 20 Comments

Does inflation matter? If so why do we aim at 2% and not zero?

One of the subjects which comes up regularly in any economics discussion or debate is inflation. Unfortunately it is a concept at which we are not very good at measuring as the concept is clear in theoretical terms but the various … Read More

Posted in General Economics, Inflation, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | 45 Comments

UK Inflation Report: GDP forecast realistic but inflation hubris misplaced

As usual, the August Inflation Report predicts a recovery in GDP expansion combined with inflation falling to the target and then below in the second year of the forecast horizon, implying scope for further monetary easing. Medium-growth prospects, however, are … Read More

Posted in GDP, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | Leave a comment

Greece had better get prepared for bailout 3.0

The situation in Greece looks as though it is about to heat up again and I am not referring to the heatwave which has driven temperatures above 40 degrees. Regular readers will be aware that I was always worried that … Read More

Posted in Debt, Euro zone Crisis, General Economics, Gilts, Greek Financial Crisis, IMF, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | 14 Comments

Royal Bank of Scotland should be nationalised but at no cost to the UK taxpayer

Today is the climax of what is central bank week with the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB) announcing their deliberations. The ECB news will come in two stages as it makes its interest-rate announcement at 12:45pm UK time … Read More

Posted in Banking Reform, Banks, Financial crisis, General Economics, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | 18 Comments

As UK household incomes go back to 2005 levels will the Monetary Policy Commitee panic tomorrow?

Yesterday provided us with more information on a subject which has troubled me for some time about the UK economy. The issue has been the falling levels of wages in real or inflation-adjusted terms. This has been caused by a … Read More

Posted in GDP, General Economics, Gilts, Income, Interest rates, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues | 24 Comments

What is the state of the UK housing market? And where is it going?

Last week gave us disappointing Gross Domestic Product growth figures for the UK where economic output was estimated to have fallen by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2012. Should such a fall be confirmed by subsequent updates then we … Read More

Posted in Banks, GDP, General Economics, Gilts, House Prices, Income, Interest rates, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues, Yield | 16 Comments
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