Category Archives: Uncategorized

What does the transfer window just gone tell us about the economics of England’s Premier League?

Last night at 11pm British Summer Time the latest transfer window for the UK football premiership closed. I would say slammed shut but in fact some deals  such as the move of the England international Danny Welbeck to Arsenal had … Read More

Posted in General Economics, Inflation, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 6 Comments

Jackson Hole – and the expectation of Eurozone QE – has been the real driver of markets

The extended Labor Day weekend in the US traditionally marks the end of summer, and markets returning will find a very crowded calendar of US data this week, most of which is likely to surprise on the upside. However, the … Read More

Posted in Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The current difficulties and dangers faced by investors seeking income

Since the recovery from the global banking crisis in 2008 and apart from the odd stumble along the path investors have generally been very well rewarded for taking the risks associated with both equity and bond investment. However, since the … Read More

Posted in Income, Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Scottish independence – all others risks pale besides the currency risk

Ben Kumar, investment manager with 7IM considers the implications of  Scottish independence for investors portfolios The debate on Scottish Independence has been in and out of the headlines for months. Part of this excitement is justified – as we said … Read More

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments

US stock market rise stretched relative to history – update

This post updates a comparison of the rise in the Dow Jones Industrials index from its March 2009 low with increases after six previous bear markets involving a peak-to-trough fall of about 50%. (The Dow declined by 54% between October 2007 and … Read More

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

UK MPC minutes suggest increased interest in money trends

An interesting feature of the August MPC minutes is that the “Money, credit, demand and output” section includes, for once, a discussion of monetary trends. This may reflect the influence of the Bank of England’s new chief economist, Andrew Haldane. … Read More

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

Cycle analysis suggests 2016-17 US recession risk

A post last week suggested that economic fluctuations in recent decades can be explained by the interaction of three cycles. The current post applies this idea to post-WW2 US economic data. The three cycles of interest are: the 3-5 year … Read More

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Time and cycles

Time-based economic forecasting is unfashionable. Until the mid-twentieth century, economists were sympathetic to the idea that business activity and prices fluctuate in regular cycles. The majority view today is that booms / busts reflect policy errors, market failures or supply-side … Read More

Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments

Cat and mouse – Insurance-linked securities is yet another area where value is in short supply

By Andrew Lyddon From time to time – though admittedly with what, in recent months, has felt like a good deal greater frequency – The Value Perspective likes to highlight an asset class that looks to be overpriced. This time, … Read More

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Cynk hole – Plenty of extreme sports already exist so there is no need to make investing one

By Jamie Lowry Everybody will have their own idea as to what is and is not ‘fun’ but, even so, The Value Perspective was a little taken aback to read the following comment in a recent Financial Times article: “We … Read More

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
Page 4 of 2012345678910...20...Last »