Category Archives: Uncategorized

UK GDP / output data solid, consumer confidence surging

Official data released this week confirm that the economy is growing robustly but were marginally disappointing from the perspective here. The rise in GDP in the second quarter was unrevised at 0.7%, versus an expected upgrade to 0.8%, although first-quarter … Read More

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Will we see German economic growth based on domestic consumption and not exports?

Yesterday saw the relection of Angela Merkel in Germany as her party gathered an increased share of the vote in Germany. However in spite of this, her tendency to cannibalise coalition partners, means that the coalition still required by the … Read More

Posted in Euro zone Crisis, General Economics, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 18 Comments

Change of circumstances – Vodafone’s mega-deal will have rewarded contrarian investors

By Andrew Lyddon From time to time The Value Perspective has written – usually quite favourably – about Vodafone and the decent job management have done dismantling what, over the years, had been built up into a huge but fragmented business. … Read More

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Your pension and inheritance tax planning – important issues to think about

What’s your legacy? It’s just over a year since the London Olympics. But the Olympic legacy will be felt long after the torch made its way to Rio. As well as the sporting facilities it will hopefully act as the … Read More

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Vodafone/Verizon – the US tax implications – Gains sheltered by Sipps but not Isas notes Hargreaves Lansdown

Broker Hargreaves Lansdown has set out in detail what the Vodafone Verizon deal means for investors and the possible tax implications.  Among other things it notes that those holding shares in a Sipp are exempt from US withholding taxes, but … Read More

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Misguided UK guidance: the “old” MPC would be turning hawkish

The “MPC-ometer” model followed here suggests that the Monetary Policy Committee would be inclining towards tightening policy if it were responding to economic and financial developments in the same way as in the past. Specifically, the model reading for September … Read More

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Portugal has left its recession but is still in an economic depression

Today I wish to discuss the economic situation in Portugal which I have not covered since the 28th of June. There is a reason for the gap which is that the Gross Domestic Product numbers for the second quarter were … Read More

Posted in Demographics, Euro zone Crisis, General Economics, Manufacturing, Recession, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 12 Comments

World trade reviving from 2012 weakness

Business surveys indicate a pick-up in world trade, consistent with the forecast here of solid global economic expansion through late 2013. The chart shows two-quarter growth in OECD export plus import volumes together with trade-related responses in the US ISM … Read More

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UK GDP detail confirms strong, balanced growth

Today’s upward revision to UK GDP growth in the second quarter from 0.6% to 0.7% had been suggested by earlier construction and industrial data – see previous post. Unrounded, the increase is now 0.72% rather than 0.62%, with a marginal … Read More

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UK bank share sales will be made easier by house price rises won’t they?

One of the main problems of the UK economy as it headed into the credit crunch was an over-emphasis on the housing and property sectors which boomed and then overheated. Unfortunately the UK’s coalition government seems set on basing its … Read More

Posted in Banks, General Economics, House Prices, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, UK Inflation Prospects and Issues, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 24 Comments
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