What is going on in the Irish economy and public finances?

One of the most hotly debated topics in the Euro crisis has been the position of Ireland which for some has been a poster boy (girl), and for others is an example of what Euro style austerity inflicts on an economy. My argument is that she has elements of both simultaneously and as 2013 has seen several developments on this front already it is time to look at her again.

Congratulations Ireland

Yesterday there was more good news for her from her government bond market. You may recall that she enacted a bond swap last summer which extended the term of some of her debt, well she has now gone one stage further.

The NTMA today raised €2.5 billion through the sale by way of syndicated tap of its Treasury Bond 2017. The funds were raised at yield of 3.316 per cent.

So she is the first of the countries in the Euro area peripheral crisis to return to bond markets in this manner. Also if you look at the yield she was able to fund herself at a level that if repeated would make her look potentially solvent. According to her National Treasury Management Agency some 87% of the issue was bought by overseas investors which adds to the good news. I would imagine Paul Krugman is rather embarrassed at this point.

Underlying all this has been the improvement in the Irish government bond market where yields fell substantially in 2012. Some are taking this as the equivalent of “Happy Christmas War Is Over” and suggesting that Ireland could leave the troika plan this year. They seem to have forgotten that the bond market improvement was driven at least in part by the European Central Bank’s proposal for Official Monetary Transactions or OMTs which Ireland is now more likely to qualify for. So you could argue that Ireland entering the OMT programme is now just as likely.

Ireland’s economy is doing far less well

Industrial Production

If we take a look here we see that a worrying situation has continued to develop.

Production for Manufacturing Industries for November 2012 was 2.1% lower than in October 2012.On an annual basis production for November 2012 decreased by 6.8% when compared with November 2011.

I have discussed before the impact of various drugs produced in Ireland finding that their patents have expired and that accordingly output and indeed profits falls. The recent effect has been I think from this happening to the anti-cholestrol drug crestor and after that we have seen this.

The seasonally adjusted volume of industrial production for Manufacturing Industries for the quarter period September 2012 to November 2012 was 14.4% lower than in the preceding quarter

This phase has represented quite a sea change and let me explain why with reference to the underlying level of production. Back in August  industrial production was 113.1 where 2005=100 which made her look very different to the other Euro area peripheral nations. However November’s 98.1 makes her look much less different,particularly if we look forwards and anticipate the effect of other drug patents expiring.

Retail Sales

There is not a lot of scope for optimism here either in the latest numbers.

The volume of retail sales (i.e. excluding price effects) decreased by 1.1% in November 2012 when compared with October 2012 while there was an annual decrease of 0.5%.

If we did deeper for the underlying situation then where 2005=100 November in Ireland was at 92.9. So weak but much better than the calamity inflicted on this area in Greece.

What about her banks?

According to the Irish Times the Taiosearch is off to Brussels to claim that Allied Irish Bank and Bank of Ireland are live banks and are not dead. There is an excellent response in the comments to this.

‘Our banks aren’t dead’, so says Enda. No, they have been kept on life support courtesy of the Irish taxpayer and like any good parasite are now cannibalising their host.

The Irish taxpayer via her National Pension Reserve Fund has taken a hard pounding particularly in the case of Bank of Ireland. After paying 5 billion Euros for a 15% stake they watched Wilbur Ross and his associates pay 1.1 billion Euros for a 35% stake!

Perhaps the most revealing part of all this is the fact that they seem to have stopped claiming on behalf of Anglo-Irish Bank so the potential gains from Euro area funds have halved to around 14 billion Euros.

What about the housing market?

The Irish housing market will have a big part to play in the future of Ireland’s banks and the ratings agency Fitch waded into the debate yesterday. They expect another 20% fall in Irish house prices which as they have already fallen 50% or so since their peak will take them to 60% below. Also just as worryingly for Ireland’s banks Fitch expects a typical “pool” of mortgages to have a 21% default rate which is twice the rate for similarly troubled Spain.  We do know that as of the third quarter of 2012 the number of Irish mortgages either defaulted on or at risk of default had risen by 22% over the previous year to 181,000 and an increase on this has to do more damage to the Irish banking sector.

One interesting aspect of the Fitch report was that in general it expected mortgage interest rates to rise in 2013 and wider afield than just Ireland as for example other Euro area nations and the UK were included in this.

Ireland’s debt burden

As of the second quarter of 2012 Ireland national debt was 111.5% of her economic output as measured by her Gross Domestic Product compared to 101.5%  a year earlier. So rising quickly and this ignores the fact that this includes the output of foreign companies many of whom are there for the low corporate taxes. If we use Gross National Product which excludes them entirely we get to 131% as a ratio. So if we go in the middle -not very company would leave if she raised corporate taxes- she is at a very uncomfortable 121% and rising? Why uncomfortable? This is because the International Monetary Fund set 120% as a threshold when looking at Greece’s situation.

With little or no economic growth in the offing such numbers are likely to be under further pressure in 2013 and maybe beyond.

Comment

So we see that weak retail sales and very weak industrial production numbers are acting as a brake on the Irish economy. Added to this is the austerity programme planned by her government which will have an impact in 2013 but a much more severe one in 2014 where  general government expenditure is planned to be cut from 43.5 billion Euros to 40.8 billion. And 2013′s bite is more than it looks as more extra money is forecast to be spent on debt interest meaning that less will be available for other purposes.

We therefore have to ask why financial markets are apparently looking at her so favourably? In my opinion two main factors are at play here. Firstly any substantial yield is hard to find these days and secondly Ireland is being supported by her Euro area colleagues, the IMF and the UK. In addition she is being backstopped by the European Central Bank as well as the Central Bank of Ireland. So an opportunity in what looks an ever more rigged game.

However I wonder before this is over whether new investors might end up like Snoopy from the Peanuts column who would lie on top of his kennel saying.

When? When? When? Will I ever learn?

This entry was posted in Euro zone Crisis, GDP, General Economics, IMF, Interest rates, Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures, Ratings agencies, Tax, Yield and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.
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  • DaveS

    100% Debt to GDP will soon be the new zero, along with a 3% deficit.

    Seems like most Western nations have passed the mark or are well on the path
    to “achieve” it. With low growth, entitlement welfare states (or out of control defence spending) & demographic time bombs – they will be needing new new zeros quite soon.

    End of empire perhaps ?

  • http://www.facebook.com/TheRealFinney Andrew Finney

    For me the Peanuts allusion would have to be Lucy (the government) holding the football for Charlie Brown (taxpayers) “I promise Charlie Brown, this time I’ll definitely hold those responsible to account”

    Whoosh
    Argh!
    Sigh

  • JW

    Hi Shaun,
    A little bit nervous about posting……ah well.
    Ireland seems to be exhibiting ‘Baltic’ tendencies. Emigration represents about 2% of the population per year ( obviously a higher percentage of the working population) and is on an increasing trend since 2008. A hollowed out economy existing to support the zombie banks.

  • JW

    NB, I hope you are going to update us on RPI tomorrow, sounds like we are being softened up for the worst today.

  • Patrick

    Saw a few headlines about that, but not had chance to read and prepare. Fair to expect the worst I guess…

  • John

    Thanks for your analysis Shaun. Its interesting how the two halves appear to tell different stories. Happens quite often, but it does seem to me that the good news and the bad news should not be able to co-exist on the same day or even in the same week. Someone has it wrong and my guess is that its the bond market. It will be interesting to see how the rates change over the next 2-3 months. For the bond markets to be right, shouldn’t there be some signs of real growth across a lot of the real economy, not just the financial sector?

  • John

    Of course, I could have totally misunderstood!

  • forbin

    hello shaun

    isn’t it nice to compare Ireland and Greece as fare as their respective economies

    then compare with Iceland

    I do hope the emerald isle gets back its pension savings used to bail its banksters out but , you know, i doubt it…..

    Forbin

  • Anonymous

    Hi DaveS
    It is certainly staring to feel like the end of an era I agree. We need “something wonderful” as the film 2001 put it to get the West of the mess it is in I think.

  • Anonymous

    Hi Andrew
    Charlie Brown never learned did he?

  • Anonymous

    Hi Guys

    Yes I am ready for tomorrow’s announcement on the RPI “improvement” consultation where I hope for the best but expect the worst! I did my best as I replied to the consultation both in my own name and as part of the rpicpiusergroup of the Royal Statistical Society who pleasingly came to the same conclusion of no change being the bext response.

    As for emigration from Ireland here are the latest estimates from her statistics office.

    “Emigration from Ireland in the twelve months to April 2012 is estimated to have increased to 87,100 from 80,600 in the year to April 2011, while the number of immigrants is estimated to have fallen marginally to 52,700 from 53,300 over the same period. These combined changes resulted in an increase in the net outward migration from 27,400 in the year to April 2011 to 34,400 in the year to April 2012.Emigration from Ireland in the twelve months to April 2012 is estimated to have increased to 87,100 from 80,600 in the year to April 2011, while the number of immigrants is estimated to have fallen marginally to 52,700 from 53,300 over the same period. These combined changes resulted in an increase in the net outward migration from 27,400 in the year to April 2011 to 34,400 in the year to April 2012.”
    So relatively high for a population of circa 4.5 million and of course we do not find out any idea of the type of person who left and entered…

  • Anonymous

    Hi John
    The other alternative is that they are anticpating a bailout for ever strategy where everything gets paid out. Although in the end that will miss fire too but so far fiancial authorities have been happy to keep pushing the boundaries.

  • Anonymous

    Hi Forbin
    It would be extraordinary if they got the real value of the NPRF back. In essence it bought time for bankrupt banks and was frittered away so it would need a new boom which is a very very long way away at best….