UK monetary policy is being driven by the pound’s rise and Gilt yields

Firstly welcome to 2014 to all readers of this blog as we enter yet another year of the credit crunch era. A bit like the First World War -whose centenary starts this year- its supposed end is always just around the corner on the “over by Christmas” theme but is then replaced by a much […]

2 January 2014 by Shaun Richards

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What is happening in the UK housing market? Is it “unbalanced growth”?

At beginning of this week the Governor of the Bank of England issued a warning about the state of play in the UK housing market. In his speech in New York he told us this. What then of the risks of unbalanced growth? This is more delicate. Despite admirable progress by British households in recent […]

13 December 2013 by Shaun Richards

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The European Central Bank is currently “pushing on a string” in a liquidity trap

The last 24 hours has given an opportunity to compare the monetary situation of the Euro area with that of the UK. On the one hand one might expect the results to be similar as both had at the time of the data an official interest-rate of 0.5%. But in an era of extraordinary measures […]

29 November 2013 by Shaun Richards

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Is there such a thing as the “right” exchange rate?

One of the strongest forces in economics is often either ignored or treated as something that cannot be controlled. The Bank of England has regularly chanted Shaggy’s hit “It wasn’t me” when confronted with the consequences of the 2007/08 over 20% fall in the value of the pound sterling on the foreign exchanges. However as […]

26 November 2013 by Shaun Richards

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As Standard & Poor’s downgrades France – what about the UK?

A theme of this blog has been that the economy of France is struggling and that it is beginning to behave more like one of the southern European countries than that of the north. This poses a problem for a Euro project that has at its heart a Franco-German axis as the two nations have […]

8 November 2013 by Shaun Richards

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Why is the “independent” Bank of England feeding a pre-election housing boom?

Today opens with yet another sign of institutionalised inflation in the UK as the price of a National Lottery ticket rises from £1 to £2, and those who bought odd numbers of tickets are left in a quandary (especially those who could only afford one). However inflation as recorded by the Office for National Statistics […]

3 October 2013 by Shaun Richards

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The Chancellor says don’t worry be happy about UK house price rises

Analysing events has from time to time, has the virtue that if you do so properly then events can be kind enough to seamlessly fit your argument. It was only yesterday where in the process of a Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? or who guards the guardians discussion about the clear flaws in both the concept and […]

27 September 2013 by Shaun Richards

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How expansionary should monetary policy be in “boom-time” Britain?

Back on the 1st of July, I welcomed Mark Carney to the role of Governor of the Bank of England by wondering if he would be a “lucky” Governor for the reason stated below. the economy is enjoying a spring/summer bounce. That theme has been reinforced with a vengeance as I shall discuss and analyse […]

4 September 2013 by Shaun Richards

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What now for UK monetary policy and the “forward guidance” of Mark Carney?

Yesterday we received the first keynote speech from the new Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. It was eagerly awaited because the first weeks of his tenure have exhibited something of a bi-polar character. Whilst the economy has turned for the better anyone with any sense realises that this was driven by events before he […]

29 August 2013 by Shaun Richards

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