14th April 2011
Gibbs says that economically the Fukushima earthquake will show a different pattern from Kobe because prior to this year's disaster, the Japanese economy was growing, unlike when the Kobe earthquake struck in the mid 1990s.
Gibbs says he thinks the Japanese economy will see 0.5 to 1 per cent fall in GDP this year, but that is will be regained next year.
There are, of course, other negatives. The radiation remains a humanitarian concern but economically its impact is likely to be limited. "It is unlikely we will see a serious economic impact from radiation alone," he says.
He identifies the other two negatives as supply chain concerns and concerns about power generation.
In the former case, he says there may be 2nd and 3rd tier suppliers which may be working down their inventories and in some sectors there could be pauses in production in future as a result.
These issues can also affect global industries.