11th June 2013
Economic thinktank, the NIESR says its monthly estimate of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in May after growth of 1.0 per cent in the three months ending in April 2013.
The NIESR estimates suggest that both the production and private services sectors provided significant positive contributions to GDP growth in the recent three month period.
The latest quarterly forecast (published 2nd May 2013) projects growth of 0.9 per cent per annum this year and 1.5 per cent in 2014. The private services sector is likely to drive economic growth through the remainder of this year.
The National Institute says it interprets the term “recession” to mean a period when output is falling or receding, while “depression” is a period when output is depressed below its previous peak. “Thus, unless output turns down again, the recession is over, while the period of depression is likely to continue for some time. We do not expect output to pass its peak in early 2008 until 2015.”
It has added a little note about past accuracy of its survey . It says: “Our track record in producing early estimates of GDP suggests that our projection for the most recent three-month period has a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.238% point (for the full sample period 1999Q3-2012Q4) when compared to the first estimate produced by the Office for National Statistics. For the period 2008Q1 to 2012Q4 the RMSE is 0.360% point. The impact of the adverse weather in 2010Q4 is a noticeable outlier. Excluding 2010Q4 from the analysis and the RMSE for the full sample period is 0.198% point, and for 2008Q1 to 2012Q4 the RMSE is 0.274% point. These comparisons can be made only for complete calendar quarters. Outside calendar quarters the figures are less reliable than this and they are also likely to be less accurate in the current disturbed economic circumstances.”