No double dip but first quarter household income saw largest quarterly fall since 1987 says JP Morgan

27th June 2013

The Office for National Statistics revised GDP data for the first quarter of 2013 has growth unrevised at 0.3% quarter on quarter, but the report also shows that real household disposable income fell by the largest amount in 25 years. The recession was deeper than previously estimated as J.P. Morgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist David Lebovitz points out in a note issued this week.

J.P Morgan makes the following points

Lebovitz adds: “Although the UK economy is beginning to show some signs of strength, achieving stronger growth will be an uphill battle. Inflation continues to outpace wage growth, which, coupled with government spending cuts, will drag on economic growth in the coming quarters.

“The Bank of England is holding the first policy meeting led by new governor Mark Carney on Wednesday and Thursday next week, and it seems clear that additional easing from the central bank is needed to support the recovery and may come later in the year.”

5 thoughts on “No double dip but first quarter household income saw largest quarterly fall since 1987 says JP Morgan”

  1. David Lilley says:

    The big issue is that if you cease to be an economic partner you become an economic enemy.

    An independent Scottland wouldn’t default on its share of the UK National Debt despite all the threats to do so. It wouldn’t introduce itself to the world as a debt defaulter.

    It would loose two large subsidies by choice. It would loose the Scottish settlement that Wales can only dream of and it would loose the public sector pensions subsidy. One in four Scottish workers works in the public sector v one in five for the UK. Their unfunded public sector pensions liability may dwarf their proportion of the UK National Debt.

    If they sought to attract inward investment by reducing corporation tax they would have competition from England and its remaining partners.

    1. therrawbuzzin says:

      An independent Scottland wouldn’t default on its share of the UK National Debt despite all the threats to do so. It wouldn’t introduce itself to the world as a debt defaulter.

      ________________________________

      The day of the speech in Edinburgh, where Gideot said “Walk away from the UK, walk away from the pound.” he also claimed title to ALL UK debt, in ALL circumstances.

      Scotland CANNOT default on someone else’s debt.

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      It would loose two large subsidies by choice. It would loose the Scottish settlement that Wales can only dream of and it would loose the public sector pensions subsidy. One in four Scottish workers works in the public sector v one in five for the UK. Their unfunded public sector pensions liability may dwarf their proportion of the UK National Debt.

      ________________________________________________

      Scotland pays more INTO the UK in taxes than it gets back, FAR MORE.

      The public sector pensions issue has already been agreed.

      ————————————————————————————–

      If they sought to attract inward investment by reducing corporation tax they would have competition from England and its remaining partners.

      ______________________________
      Marginal, in terms of inward investment.
      Firms want a well educated, highly skilled populace from which to recruit.

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