Portugal should leave the euro

17th May 2012

After discussing Spain yesterday today I wish to analyse the situation in her neighbour in the Iberian Peninsula Portugal. If there is a country which is observing the events transpiring in Greece right now with the most trepidation it must be Portugal as she is the nearest to following her. Sadly she looks locked on the same course with her being a year or two behind Greece and even more sadly nothing seems to have been learnt from the errors made in Greece.

Unemployment in Portugal is soaring

It used to be considered that unemployment and employment were lagging indicators for an economy such that the economy moved and they responded. However over the credit crunch periods it has become apparent that at times movements in these measures can also be leading indicators of what is about to happen. If we look at the latest data from Portugal's statistics agency we see this.

"The unemployment rate estimated for the 1st quarter of 2012 was 14.9 per cent. This value is up 2.5 percentage points

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