25th October 2016
Poor investment timing has, on average, cost European investors 0.34 percentage points in missed annualised returns over the past five years.
Investors in single-country emerging markets and sector equity funds missing out the most-by 1.05 and 1.38 percentage points, respectively.
The report, “Mind the Gap 2016—Europe: the Effects of Behaviour on European Fund Investors’ Returns”, considers the impact of investment timing on the average investor return from European-domiciled funds in each of the major long-term asset classes as well as within individual fund categories, over a five-year period.
The study uses the Morningstar Investor Returns methodology and finds that investors in concentrated, riskier funds are most affected by poor timing, on average earning lower investor returns than the stated total return over the five-year period of the study.
At the asset class level, investors in alternatives experienced the largest negative gap between total return and investor return, at 0.58 percentage points. Exceptionally, the study found investor returns for index funds to be greater, on average, than the total return.
Matias Mottola, Senior Manager Research Analyst for Morningstar, says: “We know from our US studies that actual investor returns fall short of total returns because, in aggregate, investors tend to buy after a fund has gained value and sell after it has lost value. Despite differences in market structures and investment cultures between the United States and Europe, we now have evidence that these costly investor behaviours are also prevalent in Europe, and at what cost. With the notable exception of index fund investors, investors in European funds have suffered average investor returns lower than total returns in practically all types of asset classes and categories, demonstrating a common difficulty in using funds effectively.”
Other findings include:
Index funds offered the highest average investor returns compared to total returns, with a positive asset-weighted gap of 0.26 percentage points; investors in non-index funds averaged a return gap of negative 0.37 percentage points.
Mottola adds:“The study helps to identify the types of investments where investors typically need to be extra careful, so as not to destroy value by trying to time the market”, As the data clearly shows us, investors need to be particularly cognizant of the high potential for poor market timing when entering the more volatile markets such as single-country emerging-market funds, and those providing access to individual equity sectors.”